Cumberland Advisors

The last quarter of 2017 revealed continued bullish momentum in the US stock market and ongoing increases in earnings of US public companies. Through the middle of December, the market made...

To no one’s surprise, Chair Yellen has announced her intention to resign effective upon the swearing in of her successor, Jerome Powell. Since Governor Powell’s confirmation hearing is set...

Seventeen and a half years ago we asked: 'Will the NASDAQ sell-off become a crash?'In preparing that piece in 1999–2000, we evaluated the stock market at the time and made a theoretical...

President Trump announced on Thursday the elevation of Governor Jerome Powell to succeed Chair Janet Yellen when her four-year term as chair of the Board of Governors expires. For those who may not...

We start with a quote by Donald Trump, courtesy of CNN, May 16, 2016: This is the United States government. First of all, you never have to default because you print the money, I hate to tell you,...

We thank readers for their gracious comments on our markets and metaphors missive, examining historical periods that “rhyme” in one way or another with the circumstances we find ourselves...

Three levels are apparent in the wonderfully crafted movie Tulip Fever, in which the impeccably cast Judi Dench is both abbess (mother superior) and tulip-speculating vault keeper. The film is a...

Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. The strategy seeks to identify relative strength and trend strength in an attempt to...

The 59th annual meeting of the National Association of Business Economics took place earlier last week in Cleveland with a stellar lineup of presentations on the state of the US and world economies....

The real story of the muni-bond market in the third quarter of 2017 was the impact of the three large, named storms: Harvey, Irma and Maria.Harvey hit Texas on August 24 as a Category 4 hurricane. It...

The third quarter of 2017 saw a strong equity market, while yields in the fixed-income market experienced continued volatility. The big picture for the Treasury market during the third quarter was...

As we at Cumberland Advisors expected, the FOMC left its policy rate unchanged for the moment and announced that it would begin the process of normalization of its balance sheet in October. They have...

What a crazy quarter we are closing. Washington chaos and antics, North Korean threats and missiles, hurricanes, uncertain Fed policy, no advancement of legislation or tax reform or healthcare reform...

Financial markets often present cross-sectional correlations throughout many asset classes. For example, while crude oil and the energy sector tend to move in sync, gold and equities like to move in...

As Hurricane Irma churns through the Caribbean, the Unites States is faced with something that it has not experienced before: two hurricanes of category 4 or higher hitting the country in the same...

For many years, the so-called Phillips curve has provided the inflation forecast framework underlying much of the FOMC’s policy discussions. Yet both before and especially after the financial...