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Cumberland Advisors Cumberland Advisors

Cumberland Advisors's Opinion & Analysis.
Featured here: a complete archive of all posts and research produced by Cumberland Advisors, including current material.
LIBOR And Fed? By David Kotok - Aug 19, 2016 1

"Because US dollar (USD) LIBOR is used in such a large volume and broad range of financial products and contracts, the risks surrounding it pose a potential threat to the safety and soundness of...

Cash, NIRP And Bonds — Part 3 By David Kotok - Aug 18, 2016 1

Having talked about cash, let’s now add negative rates to the calculus an investor must perform. With a positive rate, we can compute the sensitivity of a bond’s price to a change in an...

LIBOR Rising By David Kotok - Aug 16, 2016

The bottom line is that we think the financial/banking system is tightening and we are now defensive. We have raised cash in our US ETF accounts, and we have taken bond profits and shortened duration...

Cash, NIRP And Bonds—Part 2 By David Kotok - Aug 15, 2016

On July 29 we published a long piece entitled “Cash, NIRP & Bonds.” Now we see a German bank succumbing to pressure and starting to charge its customers a pass-through of the negative...

BoE’s Carney Counters Brexit Headwinds By Bill Witherell - Aug 08, 2016

Last week the Bank of England (BoE) surprised markets by announcing a broader than expected monetary stimulus package. The BoE’s first rate cut in seven years, by 25 basis points to 0.25%, was...

There's More To Come From The BOJ By Bill Witherell - Aug 01, 2016

The actions announced by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) following their two-day meeting last week fell short of the market’s expectations and led some commentators to suggest the BOJ is exhausted, at...

U.S. GDP: Is That All There Is? By Cumberland Advisors - Aug 01, 2016

The title (above) of Peggy Lee’s hit song from 1969 captures the general reaction to the BEA’s first release of second-quarter GDP for 2016. The 1.2% growth for the quarter was not only...

Cash, NIRP And Bonds By David Kotok - Jul 31, 2016

Take a look at the $100 bill, ¥10,000 note, and €100 note. They are all pieces of paper with an intrinsic value near zero. Their money-like characteristics establish the value for each bill...

Britain’s Self-Inflicted Recession By Bill Witherell - Jul 08, 2016

Post-Brexit-vote pain is beginning, and it will get worse. Investors’ attitudes about Britain’s prospects are signaled by the tumbling currency. This week the pound plunged to three-decade...

VIX, Brexit And Goodhart’s Law By Cumberland Advisors - Jul 01, 2016

The US market witnessed a 5.3% two-day drop after the UK referendum. Global markets lost $2T overall in just one day. Apparently, the market did not see the Brexit coming, at least not all of the...

Market Volatility Wanes By David Kotok - Jun 28, 2016

Until the beginning of June, when Brexit worries intensified, the US equity market had seen one of its quietest quarters in terms of volatility since the financial crisis, with the VIX “fear...

Bullard Talks Regime Change By David Kotok - Jun 27, 2016 1

Followers of the FOMC’s Summary of Projections releases will have noticed a sharp change in the June dot chart from the March chart. No, we are not talking about the downward shift from one to...

Taxable Fixed Income: Second Quarter 2016 Review By Cumberland Advisors - Jun 22, 2016

The second quarter of 2016 saw continued volatility in the equity market, while yields in the fixed-income market continued to grind lower. The downward trend in fixed-income yields was a result of a...

Tax-Free Munis: Q2 2016 Review By John Mousseau - Jun 19, 2016

Low, Lower, Lowest The tax-free bond market spent the second quarter slowly grinding to lower and lower yields – especially in the longer-maturity end of the curve where the muni market has set...

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