Breaking News
Get 40% Off 0
👀 Reveal Warren Buffett's stock picks that are beating the S&P 500 by +174.3% Get 40% Off

Week Ahead: Strong Economic Data, Robust Earnings To Propel Stocks Higher

By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen)Market OverviewNov 07, 2021 08:32AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/week-ahead-strong-economic-data-robust-earnings-to-propel-stocks-higher-200607562
Week Ahead: Strong Economic Data, Robust Earnings To Propel Stocks Higher
By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen)   |  Nov 07, 2021 08:32AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
 
PFE
-0.78%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
BTC/USD
+2.30%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
GOOG
+0.56%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
XLK
+0.62%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
XLI
+0.20%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
XLY
+0.30%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
  • Economic data, new COVID pill boost investor confidence
  • Value stocks have the edge over technology shares
  • Inflation remains the most significant risk

Despite inflation remaining an ongoing worry for investors, current market drivers—strong earnings and generally robust US economic data including Friday's surprisingly strong Nonfarm Payrolls print—should help pave the way for a continuation of the record-setting equity market streak seen last week during the new trading week.

Stimulus Unwind, But No Rate Hikes...Yet

As the season continues, strong earnings reports are anticipated to persist while interest rate hikes aren't yet in the picture near-term. Indeed, last week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear the central bank was winding down its $120 billion monthly cash injection via its bond buying program, thereby trimming stimulus. At the same time Powell noted that this effort was totally separate from raising interest rates, for which the Fed has no firm timetable as yet. 

Another potentially hopeful signal from current earnings strength: escalating inflation still didn't stop companies from showing profits. Nevertheless, market chatter indicates investors remain concerned that spiking bond yields could force the Fed's hand regarding hikes. 

Still, after years of dovish monetary policy, certain equity market sectors, primarily technology, are already potentially over-valued. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), for example, has a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 26.6, while the S&P 500 Index is trading at a P/E of 21.1. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is trading at 26.2 forward earnings, while the information technology sector, which is +28% for the year, has a forward P/E of 26.4.

Investors seem unconcerned, with many viewing the biggest tech companies as ongoing 'sure things' even after some have spent the past decade outperforming. Indeed, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Apple, and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) are the market's three most valuable companies, representing  almost 15% of the S&P 500's market capitalization.

But there's a balance in effect between risk and reward. Risk is increasing that the ever-rising price escalation will push investors into other sectors.

On Friday, Technology gained only 0.52%, underperforming several sectors, including Consumer Discretionary, which gained 0.64%. The same sector blew the competition out of the water on a weekly basis, jumping 5.03%. Technology, by comparison, rose only 3.44%.

This pattern continues from the monthly view as well: Consumer Discretionary shares soared 17.31% while Tech stocks only saw a 11.26% boost. Over a three month period, Consumer Discretionary's value doubled, +15.92%, versus Technology's +7.8%.

It was only on the six month timeframe that Technology was the leader. Consumer Discretionary stocks were also in the lead on the YTD 1-year perspectives.

Meanwhile, on Friday, all four major US benchmarks posted new records.

The S&P 500 Index closed at its 7th straight daily record, with six of those posting both a closing and intraday high. The Dow enjoyed its longest winning streak in 24 months. The NASDAQ 100 rallied too, heading towards its longest winning streak in two years, setting ten straight records so far. The small cap Russell 2000, which had struggled in recent months, saw a five-day straight series of all-time highs.

After encouraging results from Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) regarding its antiviral pill to treat COVID were released on Friday, cyclicals outperformed. That's why the Russell 2000, whose domestic firms rely most on a growing economy, jumped 1.43%, outperforming peers. Industrial and commodity-related stocks also performed better than technology shares.

Of course, markets were hugely reassured when US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations showing a gain of 531,000 jobs, including extensive upward revisions for the previous two months. Unemployment fell to 4.6%, but the labor participation rate was unchanged. Average hourly earnings met expectations but still rose the most since February.

Of note, however, Friday's equity records happened in tandem with increased Treasury demand, pushing yields, including for the 10-year note, down below 1.5. This is noteworthy considering that yields tend to rise with stocks, as investors sell off safe haven bonds, not increase their holdings.

UST 10Y Daily
UST 10Y Daily

Moreover, from a technical perspective, yields completed an H&S top, suggesting further downside.

The dollar whipsawed but closed little changed.

Dollar Daily
Dollar Daily

The greenback formed a High Wave candle, demonstrating trader confusion and even fear. However, after the global reserve currency completed a massive double-bottom, we're bullish on the USD.

Gold surged despite the flat dollar as yields dropped.

Gold Weekly
Gold Weekly

The jump is testing the neckline of the weekly H&S continuation pattern.

Bitcoin is higher on Sunday, for a second day, after the cryptocurrency moved sideways for three weeks.

Oil climbed.

Oil Daily
Oil Daily

WTI is back above the neckline of a small H&S top.

Week Ahead

All times listed are EST

Tuesday

6:00: Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment: seen to decline to 20.0 from 22.3.

9:30: US – PPI: expected to edge up to 0.6% from 0.5%.

Wednesday

9:30: US – Core CPI: predicted to double to 0.4% from 0.2%.

9:30: US – Initial Jobless Claims: anticipated to edge down to 265K from 269K.

11:30: US – Crude Oil Inventories: printed at 3.291M barrels last week.

20:30: Australia – Employment Change: predicted to soar to 50.0K from -138.0K.

22:00: China – Industrial Production: probably remained flat at 3.1%.

Thursday

3:00: UK – GDP: forecast to plummet to 1.5% from 5.5% QoQ and to 6.8% from 23.6% YoY.

6:00: Eurozone – ECB Forecast

Friday

10:00: US – JOLTs Job Openings: expected to edge higher to 10.925M from 10.439M.

Week Ahead: Strong Economic Data, Robust Earnings To Propel Stocks Higher
 

Related Articles

Week Ahead: Strong Economic Data, Robust Earnings To Propel Stocks Higher

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.
  • Any comment you publish, together with your investing.com profile, will be public on investing.com and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (9)
Jan Skilbrei
Jan Skilbrei Nov 08, 2021 5:23AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Thanks, do not be discouraged by uneducated people, partly from the street, and their comments/actions. It is like someone's telling Paul McCartney, you cannot give your song money, which was given to you, away,  to starving children in Lebanon, because they are uneducated about the situation. However, your trendlines are a state of art, mix between closing price, and pinbars. They are as you know very subjective, and they are only yours : ) Have a great day.
Chris Hall
Chris Hall Nov 07, 2021 11:48PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Bull Traps All Over
Jerry Gregor
Jerry Gregor Nov 07, 2021 9:32PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Mr. Cohen... you are a great Monday morning quarterback. You were singing a different tune not too long ago warning that we would retest September lows.
Michael Angelo
Michael Angelo Nov 07, 2021 7:54PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
The new way to say I produce money from air is to name it Economic Stimulus or QE. In the past that will be only for banana republic. NEWSPEAK!About the taper, remember the expansion is like 250 points
Katie Hollis
Katie Hollis Nov 07, 2021 7:09PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
I strongly disagree we are in a bubble.. Inflation kills and more money printing will worsen it ..Housing prices are sliding the taper will begin... get out ahead of the crowd
Felipe Daniel
Felipe Daniel Nov 07, 2021 2:33PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Your gold trade suggestion was dead wrong
chimezie Nnamdi
chimezie Nnamdi Nov 07, 2021 11:21AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
please how can I start please can someone tell me
Manic Marco
Manic Marco Nov 07, 2021 9:57AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Some numbers this week werent as bad as expected, but I'm not sure that makes them good. You didn't mention that productivity dropped by 5% and labor costs surged by 8.5%, just in the last quarter. The labor force participation rate has not even halfway recovered. I don't think "good" economic data is what keeps pushing this market higher.
Khalid Khan
Khalid Khan Nov 07, 2021 9:50AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
You forget the tesla factor .Elon is selling 10’perxent shares and thats taking global market down
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email