Stock market today: S&P 500 climbs as in-line inflation data aid rate-cut bets
US equity markets roared back to life on Thursday, 26 June, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 leading the charge, climbing 0.9% to notch another fresh all-time intraday and closing high. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to close at 6,140—just shy of its all-time intraday high of 6,147 set in February. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed with a 1.7% surge.
Despite ongoing concerns around slowing US economic growth and the approaching 9 July expiration of the White House’s 90-day pause on global reciprocal tariffs (excluding China), investor sentiment remained firmly risk-on. Markets appear to be positioning for potential additional liquidity from a more dovish Federal Reserve as early as Q3.
Asian Stock Markets Extend Gains on Positive US Momentum
The upbeat tone carried into Friday’s Asia session, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures tacking on intraday gains of 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 continued its bullish breakout from a seven-week consolidation, rising 1.2% to a five-month high. Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.6%, poised to close higher for a fourth straight session. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index underperformed, slipping -0.4%.
US Labour Market Softens as Continuing Claims Hit 31-Month High
The latest US continuing jobless claims rose to 1.974 million for the week ending 14 June, the highest level since November 2021. The data suggests that more individuals are staying unemployed for longer periods, reinforcing the view of a weakening labour market.
This softening could push the Fed to abandon its current “wait and see” approach—emphasised by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his testimony to Congress this week—and potentially bring forward interest rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are now pricing in three 25-bps rate cuts by December 2025, up from two rate cuts forecast last week, aligning with the Fed’s latest dot plot.
US Dollar Extends Slide Amid Dovish Fed Expectations
Dovish Fed repricing has weighed heavily on the greenback. The US Dollar Index posted a fourth consecutive daily loss on Thursday, falling -0.4% to 97.35, ts lowest level in three years, and breaching a critical support at 97.40. A sustained weekly close below this level could confirm a multi-week to multi-month downtrend.
The euro and sterling extended their rallies to fresh multi-year highs. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc surged to a decade high against the US dollar, with USD/CHF breaking below the 21 April low of 0.8040 to hit an intraday low of 0.7979, its weakest level since the 2015 removal of the EUR/CHF floor.
JPY Holds Firm Despite Softer Tokyo Inflation and Retail Sales
Despite softer-than-expected data out of Japan, including Tokyo’s core CPI for June (3.1% y/y vs. 3.3% consensus) and retail sales (2.2% y/y vs. 2.7% expected), the Japanese yen held steady. USD/JPY reversed earlier intraday gains to trade flat at 144.43 ahead of the closely watched US PCE inflation data due later in the US session.
Gold Slips Below Key Support on Waning Safe-Haven Demand
The resurgence in risk appetite has weighed on gold prices. XAU/USD broke below its US$3,300 intermediate support and the 50-day moving average, registering a -1% intraday loss. The precious metal is now trading at a four-week low of US$3,295, reflecting diminished short-term safe-haven demand.
Economic Data Releases
Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)
Chart of the Day – Potential Bearish Breakdown of USD/JPY from 9-week Range
Fig 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 27 June 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Price actions of the USD/JPY have failed to trade higher above its 20-day moving average, and it is now shaping an impending weekly bearish “Dark Cloud Cover” candlestick pattern that suggests a potential bearish breakdown from its “Ascending Wedge” range support that has been in place since the 22 April 2025 low.
In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out bearish momentum conditions as it remains below a parallel descending resistance.
Watch the 145.20 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 143.90 (“Ascending Wedge” range support) exposes the next intermediate supports at 143.00 and 142.40 (see Fig 2).
On the other hand, a clearance above 145.20 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 146.25 and 147.15.