Oil prices surge to two-week winning streak as Iran supply fears grip markets
Indices kept the good times rolling with the Russell 2000 (IWM), equal-weighted S&P 500 and Semiconductor Index all pushing to new all-time highs. Since clearing the last line of resistance, these indices have barely paused.
The Russell 2000 is doing most of the heavy lifting, outperforming peer indices as Small Caps take over from the tech heavy hitters.
The equal-weighted S&P 500 added to its breakout, leaving it extended from nearest support of 7,900.
Although the S&P 500 finished with a bearish ’black’ candlestick and is at risk from a ’bull’ trap. How this plays against the equal-weighted S&P 500 will be interesting should it happen.
The Nasdaq experienced a similar finish as the S&P 500 with a ’black’ candlestick, but an undercut from here would negate the bullish ascending triangle and shift it instead to a neutral trading range.
The Semiconductor Index had gapped higher, but also finished with a bearish ’black’ candlestick as the Nasdaq. If it gaps lower it will set up a ’blow out’ top, similar to what happened in November, but the flipside ’black’ candlestick from the end of December was no blocker to the rally.
Finally, Bitcoin managed a break from its trading range, which should kick-start the development of a right-hand-side base. Thursday’s loss, bringing with it a test of breakout support, is a second chance to buy the move.
As the end of the week approaches, there is still no date for SCOTUS ruling on tariffs, leaving markets riding the gains from earnings strength in the semiconductor and banking sectors. We have relative performance of the indices to their 200-day MAs to consider as measures of overextension in the market, but for now, let’s see how the ’black’ candlesticks play out today.