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In today’s Mish’s Market Minute video, we break down the current state of real estate and why investors should be paying attention right now.
Real estate has a long-standing relationship with the stock market — sometimes it leads, sometimes it lags — but the connection is always meaningful.
Recent housing data shows prices rising back toward 2024 levels, signaling growing optimism.
However, this is not a full-blown housing boom yet — more like a steady reset as the market adjusts to potentially lower rates and improving economic expectations.
Meanwhile, major homebuilders are moving forward with confidence, building tract homes in anticipation of lower borrowing costs and stronger demand ahead.
That confidence suggests expectations for a better economic backdrop in the coming cycle.
The weekly chart of IYR, the Real Estate Investment Trust ETF, tells an equally compelling story. 
IYR has cleared its 2025 highs and is currently outperforming the S&P 500 as noted by the Leadership chart featured.
Weekly momentum is improving (as shown in the Real Motion indicator chart).
Still, price remains below the major peaks from 2021 and 2024 — leaving room for potential upside if momentum continues.
Real estate is quietly improving.
The question now: is this the early signal of a bigger move ahead?
Video here: