Bonds Analysis & Opinion

For those who are willing to see it, there is strong evidence that reasonably persistent seasonal trends exist in the stock market (see here).But what about the bond market? Do seasonal trends exist...

Junk bonds are often viewed as leading indicators for stocks. Below looks at junk bond ETF JNK and the technical hurdles it faces. When junk bonds turned weak in 2014, stocks struggled to move much...

Despite last month’s slightly lower employment growth (jobs had a $151,000 net gain), it’s still highly probable the Fed will increase rates by year-end. While they are sensitive to the...

Several readers asked me to comment on the possibility of a yield cure inversion. An inversion occurs when shorter term rates have a higher yield than longer dated rates. Typically this is a strong...

If there is one major theme that pervades the financial markets this year, it’s the shift from stocks to bonds. You can romanticize the momentum in gold stocks. You can peek at emerging-market...

We are looking for a final top to the massive bond bull market that began in 1981. While it is possible the final top is in place, I am leaning to one final marginal high before everything goes belly...

If a bond has a negative yield, then the bondholders will lose their money on their investment. In the long run, their expectations are lower and consequently they lose the incentive to...

Yesterday’s upbeat report on consumer spending and income in the US provides fresh support for last week’s moderately hawkish comments from Fed officials, who hinted that another...

Having talked about cash, let’s now add negative rates to the calculus an investor must perform.With a positive rate, we can compute the sensitivity of a bond’s price to a change in an...

At Rory’s prescient behest, we have been way out in front of the curve on the Silk Road and on the issue of China using the IMF to push aside the dollar as the reserve currency. Casey Research...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year treasury note futures traders and speculators trimmed their overall bullish positions last week for a second consecutive week, according...

CFTC Futures data shows speculators decreased bullish bets last week U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year treasury note futures traders and speculators reduced their...

Note: We've update this commentary with data through Friday's market close.Let's take a closer look at US Treasuries since the Brexit vote to leave the EU. Today saw jumps in yields on the 10-, 20-...

Near term U.S. 10-Year note yield outlook:In the Aug 3rd email, affirmed the view of another week or more of consolidating from the Jul 21st high at 1.63% but seen as a correction, and with a...