Bonds Analysis & Opinion

My intermediate and longer term technical set-up work on U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield argues that benchmark yield is in transition from a 35-year bear Market (dominant downtrend) into a multi-year bull...

After many false promises and one false start, it is becoming evident that 2017 will be the year the Federal Reserve finally begins down the road toward interest-rate normalization. Therefore, it is...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders sharply reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week, according to the...

Remember 2014 when the Fed said that it would need to start thinking about removing stimulus? I know, I know, I cant remember dinner last night either. But when that happened there was a flood of...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through today's market close.Let's take a closer look at US Treasuries in recent weeks. The yield on the 10-year note ended today at 2.49% and the 30-year...

The market euphoria brought on by President-elect Trump (rising equity markets and bond yields) has now moved on to the reality of President Trump. The spadework of working with Congress to move his...

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through Friday's market close.Let's take a closer look at US Treasuries in recent weeks. The yield on the 10-year note ended Friday at 2.48% and the...

We had a number of Fed speakers this past week. Philly Fed President Lacker stated, “The economy is displaying considerable strength.” Regarding the employment situation, he approvingly...

A number of websites e.g. Bloomberg, Zero Hedge, have been pointing to the extreme build up in short positioning in Treasury futures by speculators. Indeed, Zero Hedge zeros in on the apparent 4...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders continued to bet against the 10-year treasury note in the futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of...

Zerohedge has an interesting post out today called Treasury Specs Are So Short, It Is Now A 4 Sigma Event. Let’s take a look at his charts and a couple of mine.According to the latest breakdown...

My work has triggered preliminary signals that TBT's September-December upleg correction ended at Thursday's January 12 low of 38.19 and that a new upleg has commenced.Notice that the 24-hour upmove...

US Treasuries are facing a triple threat from market technicals. Rising off of the July 2015 low, TLT completed a 3-Drives pattern in July 2016. The following reversal retraced 88.6% of the pattern...