Bonds Analysis & Opinion

5-Year Bond Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the 5-Year Bond futures markets last week, according to the latest...

“[Whatever] the repo failure involved, it is likely to prove a watershed moment, causing US bankers to more widely consider their exposure to counterparty risk and risky loans, particularly...

With China closed for its National Day Golden Week holiday, the stage was set for Japan to steal the market spotlight. If only briefly. The Bank of Japan announced last night that it had had enough of...

Current market conditions and misplaced investor pessimism make this topic worth revisiting. Continued revisits will likely prove valuable as global events play out. The value of hindsight is that it...

One of the most maddening aspects of the recent repo market, federal funds mashup is the lack of context behind it. The event is being characterized and described as if in isolation. Regulations are...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10 Year Note futures markets once again this week, according to...

In a series of recent articles (here, here and here) I wrote about seasonality in the bond market. In this piece we will look at a “practical application”. The Caveats*Everything that I...

What’s keeping long-dated bonds at the head of this year’s performance ledger for fixed-income markets? Recession worries still top the list, although nervous investors can point to this...

Bund December Contract Daily Forecast - September 23, 2019 Bund closed near the high of the day but could not reach strong resistance at 173.95/99. A break above 174.05 is a buy signal...

So much has been discussed about the power of the yield curve and how it affects the economy. It stands to reason when an inversion occurs the economy is likely to slip into a recession - eventually....

The amount of global debt with negative yields soared to $16 trillion, or more than 25 percent of the market. This number has nearly tripled since October 2018. In July, even the 30-year German...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

According to the recent release of the Federal Reserve’s projected forecasts, that’s it. It wasn’t one and done like Chairman Powell had initially indicated, this “midcycle...

Bund strong resistance at 173.25/30. A break above 173.45 targets 173.61/65, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 173.95/99. Holding below strong resistance at 173.25/30 targets...