Oil prices jump after Iran says critical Strait of Hormuz to remain shut
The delayed BLS employment report came in well above expectations, showing the economy added 130k jobs in January. Furthermore, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% versus expectations of a 0.1% increase to 4.5%. The more encompassing U6 unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to 8.0%.
The BLS labor report contradicts the monthly and weekly ADP reports, showing job growth closer to 25k a month. Since the pandemic, the BLS report and the ADP labor market reports have not been nearly as correlated as they were.
While we hope the BLS report is correct and the labor market is improving, we are concerned that revisions to the BLS have been higher than normal, and January has many seasonal adjustments that can skew data. That said, if the BLS report accurately reflects a pickup in the labor market, the reflation narrative may have some legs.
There is one concerning data point in the BLS report worth noting. As we share below, courtesy of Ernie Tedeschi, the median duration of unemployment, as measured in weeks, has been rising and now sits at 11 weeks. Going back over 50 years, this is a relatively high value, suggesting the labor market is not as strong as the January BLS labor report indicates.
Furthermore, our Tweet of the Day shows that Revelio’s private labor gauge indicates negative job growth.
New Home Prices Vs. Resale Prices
The most recent data from John Burns Research shows that the price premium new homes typically command over re-sales no longer exists. Over the last ten years, as shown below, new home prices have been anywhere from 10-40% above resale prices. In October 2025, the median new single-family home sold for $392,300, down 3.3% from September, while the median existing-home price in December was $405,400.
Builders are much more aggressive in selling new homes than homeowners. They are offering incentives like rate buydowns and price cuts to move inventory amid high mortgage rates and large inventories. Moreover, they have shifted to building smaller, lower-priced homes. It’s worth adding that apartment rents also eased to a four-year low of $1,353 in January 2026, thanks in part to surging multifamily supply. This makes renting more advantageous than buying and reduces demand for new and existing homes.
Tweet of the Day
