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Are Retail Stocks Poised for Further Gains?

ByMichele Schneider
Published 02/27/2024, 01:48 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

November 15, 2021, Granny Retail XRT) made a new all-time high at 104.31.XRT-Daily Chart

Currently, with SPY DIA QQQ and many other tech stocks making new all-time highs, XRT remains stronger now than in recent times, but quite far from the 2021 splendor.

Touting the “Vanity” trade, or one where folks turn more to “all about me” has been a main theme of ours this year.

A domino effect from the diet drugs made by Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) (both stocks on all-time highs), we believe this will spill over to beauty, fashion, skincare, working out and maybe-dating.

Not only do the diet drugs lead the way to sustained weight loss, BUT AI ALSO keeping folks sequestered will foster an eventual need for folks to socialize face-to-face.

And with 38% of Americans alone suffering from obesity, imagine what that could mean if a big portion of these folks lose weight once and for all and decide to show off!

And what member of the Family will benefit the most?

Granny Retail (XRT).

XRT-Monthly Chart

If you look up the holdings, Abercrombie and Fitch (NYSE:ANF) is the second largest in the XRT basket.

That stock has been on fire.

Regardless, a couple or noteworthy technical indicators.

  1. On the Daily chart, XRT is above the January 6-month calendar range.
  2. XRT outperforms SPY and on Real Motion, momentum has gained-HOWEVER-is into resistance.
  3. On the monthly chart, as a late bloomer, XRT cleared the 23-month moving average in December.
  4. Since XRT trades higher than it did in December and January. The 2023 high of 75.77 must clear next to keep the party going.
  5. On our proprietary indicator of Trend Strength, XRT is ranked 5.
  6. Most importantly, these recent gains must hold. Otherwise, a move down to 64-68 would be a buy-a-dip opportunity.
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Note: We are including HYG as part of the ETF write-up as this is a lead indicator for risk on/off.

ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY) 500 support 510 resistance
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) 195 support 205 to clear
  • Dow (DIA) 385 pivotal
  • Nasdaq (QQQ) 430 support
  • Regional banks (KRE) Back to the 45-50 range
  • Semiconductors (SMH) 200 support
  • Transportation (IYT 276 should hold
  • Biotechnology (IBB) 135 pivotal 139.50 resistance
  • Retail (XRT) 73 near-term support
  • iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 77 big number to hold

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