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United States 10-Year Bond Yield

NYSE
Currency in USD
3.999
-0.037(-0.92%)
Closed

United States 10-Year Discussions

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Good move today, 10Y moving well within technicals. Surprised that it went to low as 3.85%, I had floor at 3.90% and expected a bounce to 3.96%-4.0%, which did played out. I think today is a lucky day for me, very rare do yield move almost the way I wanted it and turns at a price level I need it to.
keeps bucking recession fear when jobs are good. Other retaliation still expected. EU will cause problems because they need money after years long war. China is broke too. That's the problem with all of them.
criminal intervention
9000.000.00000
Looks like the Federal Reserve is buying again
Looks like magnet at 3.90%. doesn't matter to me that my call yesterday were right, cuz i didn't hold any position in bond overnight. As expected 3.9% would likely be the new support in this fall. If it breaks lower 3.60-3.65% consolidation. I do believe that a bounce toward 3.96-4.0% is possible, but i don't believe it will hold there.
Looks like playing out as expected. I am still expecting this to do a fake up above 3.96%, that's probably a good time to get in bond, then hold -> profit taking before day ends. lol. Note market is always changing, so make sure your expectation are re-evaluated every step of the way.
Looks like it did play out as expected for now any way. Tapped 3.964% then rejection, now falling hard...
It is good to know so much money is in bonds. A good recovery will come.
its a good idea for everyone to take care of their own debt, it always was a good idea, now especially. BTW, when do you think a recovery will come and why, if you care to share a time frame; if you don't have a time frame, I totally understand.
it's strongest economy yet everybody can only invest in mag 7. haha. it's a joke.
the market will stay slammed. the retaliatory tariffs are coming and trade war will commence.
T. went beyond reciprocals. His tariffs are based on deficit trade. It explains the 95% tariff on Cambodia. I didn't figure this out on my own. Economists saw this. It hit analysts like a shockwave.
Uninhabitable volcanic islands and the penguins and the sea lions, they're on notice nobody messes with U.S.A. Seagulls are next.
There were buffers in place, I think you mentioned that too, expedited shipments to build up inventory. Virtually no one counted on tariffs way and beyond than what had been described. With less nuance than the U.K., Spain's PM is taking charge. He's meeting with Xi next month and also has a planned to visit Vietnam. He's been strategizing for wks to spare Spain any undue strain.
if you believe magic maybe yields will crash tomorrow. this is a massive report bonds.
Suprised how well it is holding up. As mentioned earlier in the day, I expected it to fake up above 4.05%+ then a movement toward 3.90-3.95%. the first part played out as I expected, but the drop is remain to be seen. given the strength i am seeing, i am having doubt it will re-test below 4% today... GL
Looks like it played out the way I figured it would. t.t
Do not sell bonds to join a rally. Only use your cash allocation. Be safe.
id think about buying 4.1
do you mean you're willing to long bond when it's at 4.10%?
lets say yields go up tomorrow instead of down. the next move will be down in yields. if not, you buy bonds here.
hmm, okay. i mean that's reasonable in my opinion. i also see 4.10% being a potential play (mentioned this myself early in the morning). i got no position in bond/yield related asset at the moment, waiting for more signs of a direction.
without an official recession designation, I fear yields will continue bucking the inversion. tomorrow, it looks o be a temporary pullback in employment but beyond anything temporary, the employment level will discount any recession. The trade war will obviously cause market flux as retaliatory tariffs are unveiled around April 9.
Fundamental trading is hard to grasp, possible that I am just not good at it. My understanding is that 10Y yield went from 3.6% to 4.8% is primarily driven by tariff expectation and its impact to inflation. Now everytime there is an escalation, market is screaming recession and rate cut. With that I believe fundamental understanding of economy is often hindsight analysis that is truly based on price action. However, price action are just price action that are likely determined by the market selected few with enough leverage and cash flow.
I wonder what is the reason of the crash! In September Us inflation will be 5%!
risk on risk off. all that money moving out of equity are playing recession, and with recession there is rate cut, and bond price will move higher. not saying it's the right move, but probably mentality of some who are in this play.
Is this all bonds can do in an all out index crash ? Come on!
I believe the stories are: yield going lower with expectation of earlier/more rate cut due to tariff, or yield going higher due to reward has to align to high risk in the economy and potential inflation. As usual, story is defined after price action, not before. Back to Technical which i think is far more important than fundamental; downward push is likely 3.90-3.95%, upward 4.05-4.10%. Personal opinion is likely going to fake up a into 4.05%+ then go under 4% for next consolidation.... GL
OK but what about political based emotional speculation
I honestly don't know what you mean by that. Love to know more if it's specific to trading related, not into politics itself, because it is often an useless thing to talk about.
below 4 soon
World reserve currency... lol. When the dust settles and we look back on this.. we're going to say WTF were we thinking trusting central bankers and politicians with our money.
I love how the media is spinning this "market collapse" story for a 3% loss on the Dow. Why don't we talk about the 500% gain in the market since 2008, fueled by government debt. In fact, in 2008 nearly 70% of debt in the US was from the consumer. Now, that's flipped to nearly 70% of debt in this country held by the government. There needs to be a total reset! No bail outs.
Keyword: DEBT That's what must change. The system of private banks lending debt to our governments and our governments lending debt to our banks and our banks lending debt to us is coming to an end. We will have honest money again. 'Gold is money, everything else is credit.' - JP Morgan
Imagine the cost of autos, homes, and college if we didn't have debt to rely upon. All of these costs would drop like a stone!
What nation doesn't have Masons involved in the fiat air backed ponzi scheme? Bonds, thin air. Treasuries, thin air. Fiat currencies, thin air. Taxation, thin air. Finance rates, thin air. Nakked shares... thin air. If everyone registered their shares... the whole casino would collapse in an instant. Fake news, Fake data, head games called expectations...it a pure evil based system. What nations doesn't have Masons involved in their finances?
SOFR will never go below 2.5%
Never say Never
I guess being 100% in bonds was the right choice. yay me
So... you're investing in bonds tied to the currency during a period of extreme inflation heading into a currency / liquidity crisis?
...
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