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United States 10-Year Bond Yield

NYSE
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
4.194
-0.006(-0.15%)
Closed

United States 10-Year Discussions

I'll say the bond/interest correlation was somewhat broken today with less bond buying. Traders see normal shipping, normal mfg, and normal consumer staples and services. Then you see gdp far exceeding expectations. I feel July reports will see increased productivity and probably increased employment. Consumption of copper for houses and cars has been bad so demand for fuel is subdued but I think it going for a rebound soon based on consumption/demand. Powell probably won't lower rates yet as they collect a little more data and let housing decline and so yields will climb to 4.33 and then drop when we see the inflation reports.
The six-month annualized core PCE price index, which irons out most of the squiggles and includes all the revisions, and which Powell cites a lot, accelerated to 3.4%, the worst since June 2023. I'm selling tech stocks like crazy. it's time
Maybe the tech push damaged small caps.
You're seeing production. Its not consumption so they want consumption to be better. You know supply is good. Where is demand?
With that good data should be green!!!
yes who need toilet paper.
Only the Powell Fed has ever looked at 4% unemployment and above potential GDP growth and said, "we need to cut rates". Every other Fed in history would have been saying we need to cool the economy.
U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected, does that mean there’s no need for imminent rate cut?
Makes you wonder why the Fed is pushing so hard to cut rates soon doesn't it?
sooner or later FED will have to cut rates because the entire economy is a boom and bust cycle , maybe, it will not happen right after the next FED meeting in a week but the market still believes there’s going to be a September cut lol
Cleveland fed probability of recession is 59% which predicts growth.
I want to say traders look directly at imports and exports to estimate gdp. I believe this has been descent but not great. if recession is here, then gdp will be lower than estimated. Gdp takes has many considerations including domestic consumer items like real estate.
best predictor of gdp is inflation. i forgot. if inflation disinflates, then gdp auto ups.
That yield curve moves to almost flat because Powell just said maybe he might might might cut rates this year?
Rate cut hopium is played out. Rate increases and asset crashes are the only exit here.
The yield curve has been distorted by the massive Fed balance sheet which has caused much of the false readings in the LEI's. Until the Fed finally right sizes their balance sheet yield curve is likely to be less reliable than in the past.
I forgot all about Powell... I'm still waiting on market reaction to the idea of President Kamala.
marker movers are still at the upper hand to bet on rate cut for the remainder of Biden’s President term as he just announced dropping out of election race? FED probably will not do anything before new President takes the office
Is BlackRock the BlackSwan? DJT assassin was in a BlackRock commercial last year. CrowdStrike is majority owned by BlackRock. Megacorp concept - nearly all major public companies are so cross-owned on each others stock, directly and also in intertwined ETFs, that it effectively becomes one global corporation. Blackrock goes, they may all go…
Why would you refi a mortgage if rates are going lower? Refi isn't cheap
What makes you think rates are going lower? Because fed heads are playing this silly game of dropping cryptic comments in the news? Didn't they tell us last year 8 cuts this year?
Largest IT outage in history this morning... impact to banks & financial markets. What if they claim they lost data? Use this as a catalyst to bring down markets?
there are many ways to hate america. yours one is to waste your life thinking and typing those things. get a life
Quite the contrary, I love America and that's the main reason I'm here, to bring attention to the real enemies who want to bankrupt and destroy America. Do you believe a security company shut down 70% of global IT operations yesterday due to a Microsoft update? Wake up man!
Is it just me or does the logic of the Crowdstrike fix seem flawed. Our customer computers are down because of a bad file in an update so lets send them an e-mail to tell them how to fix it. Ummm how do they access the email when their computers are down? lol
Sus. Microsoft Outage Triggered by CrowdStrike Update Causes Global Chaos? BS... this was intentional. There is something MUCH bigger going on.
Interesting tidbit... CrowdStrike servers are in Ukraine. And the plot thickens.
So Trump melts under the pressure to become sensitive to peoples needs and start reducing rates. Haha. That's what you said.
I would not want to buy bonds at these levels. especially with what deficits are coming. stay away. anything above 4.5 ia worth something, but not below.
Well... let's see if a global Microsoft crash causing airlines to ground flights, banks & ATM's to go offline, and all kinds of other communications issues has any effect on this market that seems to be suspended in lala land...
@Now while this is not the black swan you have been looking for, it does expose some single points of failure that could lead to a black swan. Imagine the vulnerabilities that will exist as AI takes over.
Exactly my thinking... SWIFT is down at the moment. So much political & financial drama right now... they need at out. What better than a tech failure to blame? This could set the stage for something big.
Philly feds mfg index shows growth continues. The trend is looking up in this area which has been buffed by the government.
I feel it puts extra supply into the market which reduces prices. The demand is a different story.
Philly index is useless just look at its proformace over the last few years and compare it to macro and you'll see it predicts absolutely nothing
Let’s see if bond yield will fall later since sooner cut for layoffs rise, still on the table
WT...?
market movers are playing with you :D
Fed Overnight Reverse Repo, 77% collapse in 1 year, from +$1.8 trillion to $399 billion
Both building permits and housing starts came in above expectations. Industrial production numbers knocked the cover off the ball to the upside. Yet the Fed members continue to talk cuts. There is a part of me that hopes they will cut soon because Powell and company could use a big dose of economic education, but the rest of me doesn't want to have to pay the price of an early cut.
Fed official suggests apt to cut rates sooner if layoffs rise
Exactly my point. How can we have permits and housing starts up, Dow +$40K, near record low unemployment while at the same time we have mass layoffs, 200K tech job layoffs last year, corporate bankruptcies soaring higher than 2008 recession... It's like we have 2 narratives, the REAL world we live in and the disconnected FINANCIAL world.
bond yield didn’t fall as expected because FED hasn’t commented about the unemployment rate for updated schedule to cut ; ECB had first cut , then remained no-cut. Politicians talk a lot and do nothing to play it safe lol what a waste for taxpayers’ money lol
I don't know what will happen tomorrow. Guessing I would say this falls further and bonds go up. Tomorrow has some of the first July reports and oil seems bullish and stocks seem dumpy so I am just waiting for this round of reports.
Copper price is off highs and falling which it’s a good sign for production cost for the industry. As for oil up a bit, it’s partly because of weak dollar
Natural Gas is -7.5% , falling to 1 year low , cooled inflation
Prices should keep falling but they kind of need a nudge to get the ball rolling sometimes.
Stock market especially overvalued Tech is now in correction Territory, and it’s safer parking some money in long term US Teasuries, still undervalued and the bond can have some gains when yield is falling
or just buy Bitcoin and maybe double your money in a couple years
thank you for the good advice. I’m trading less risky assets and keep away from crypto market ‘coz it’s moving like a roller coaster not healthy to an old man’s heart , lol
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