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United States 10-Year Bond Yield

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4.194 -0.006    -0.15%
- Closed. ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Bond
Group:  Government
Market:  United States
  • Prev. Close: 4.200
  • Day's Range: 4.194 - 4.194
U.S. 10Y 4.194 -0.006 -0.15%

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Suaplow McDoubleXD
Suaplow McDoubleXD 5 hours ago
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I'll say the bond/interest correlation was somewhat broken today with less bond buying. Traders see normal shipping, normal mfg, and normal consumer staples and services. Then you see gdp far exceeding expectations. I feel July reports will see increased productivity and probably increased employment. Consumption of copper for houses and cars has been bad so demand for fuel is subdued but I think it going for a rebound soon based on consumption/demand. Powell probably won't lower rates yet as they collect a little more data and let housing decline and so yields will climb to 4.33 and then drop when we see the inflation reports.
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Ciprian Gal
Ciprian Gal 8 hours ago
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The six-month annualized core PCE price index, which irons out most of the squiggles and includes all the revisions, and which Powell cites a lot, accelerated to 3.4%, the worst since June 2023. I'm selling tech stocks like crazy. it's time
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Suaplow McDoubleXD
Suaplow McDoubleXD Jul 25, 2024 12:56PM ET
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Maybe the tech push damaged small caps.
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Suaplow McDoubleXD
Suaplow McDoubleXD Jul 25, 2024 9:59AM ET
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You're seeing production. Its not consumption so they want consumption to be better. You know supply is good. Where is demand?
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Mario Rossi
Mario Rossi Jul 25, 2024 9:50AM ET
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With that good data should be green!!!
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Ongart Predikanit
Ongart Predikanit Jul 25, 2024 9:50AM ET
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yes who need toilet paper.
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Joe Lane
Joe Lane Jul 25, 2024 9:38AM ET
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Only the Powell Fed has ever looked at 4% unemployment and above potential GDP growth and said, "we need to cut rates". Every other Fed in history would have been saying we need to cool the economy.
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River Sun
River Sun Jul 25, 2024 9:23AM ET
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U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected, does that mean there’s no need for imminent rate cut?
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Joe Lane
Joe Lane Jul 25, 2024 9:23AM ET
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Makes you wonder why the Fed is pushing so hard to cut rates soon doesn't it?
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River Sun
River Sun Jul 25, 2024 9:23AM ET
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sooner or later FED will have to cut rates because the entire economy is a boom and bust cycle , maybe, it will not happen right after the next FED meeting in a week but the market still believes there’s going to be a September cut lol
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Suaplow McDoubleXD
Suaplow McDoubleXD Jul 25, 2024 4:00AM ET
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Cleveland fed probability of recession is 59% which predicts growth.
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Suaplow McDoubleXD
Suaplow McDoubleXD Jul 25, 2024 3:35AM ET
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I want to say traders look directly at imports and exports to estimate gdp. I believe this has been descent but not great. if recession is here, then gdp will be lower than estimated. Gdp takes has many considerations including domestic consumer items like real estate.
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Suaplow McDoubleXD
Suaplow McDoubleXD Jul 25, 2024 3:35AM ET
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best predictor of gdp is inflation. i forgot. if inflation disinflates, then gdp auto ups.
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Mike Kruser
Mike Kruser Jul 24, 2024 10:45AM ET
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That yield curve moves to almost flat because Powell just said maybe he might might might cut rates this year?
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Ciprian Gal
Ciprian Gal Jul 24, 2024 10:45AM ET
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It does not matter. I have a chart (updated till yesterday) that shows that pricing pressures are increasing again exponentially, due to supply constraints. It is already showing up in import prices. In any event, the bond market will wake up soon when they realize that the 2.2 inflation average in the last decade cannot be achieved but rather we will be on the 3 handle for inflation average in the next decade (resembling the 1970s). get your portfolio ready bc many will experience a wild ride.
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MachineGun Bandit
MachineGun Bandit Jul 24, 2024 10:45AM ET
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Rate cut hopium is played out. Rate increases and asset crashes are the only exit here.
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Joe Lane
Joe Lane Jul 24, 2024 10:45AM ET
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The yield curve has been distorted by the massive Fed balance sheet which has caused much of the false readings in the LEI's. Until the Fed finally right sizes their balance sheet yield curve is likely to be less reliable than in the past.
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NOWis ALLuHAVE
NOWis ALLuHAVE Jul 24, 2024 10:45AM ET
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I forgot all about Powell... I'm still waiting on market reaction to the idea of President Kamala.
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