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Weak macro data and political noise in Italy and Spain behind a 4 points rise in the last 2 weeks.. . It also seems that the market is anticipating a dovish tone from Mr Dragui in the next ECB Council in approx 2 weeks time. . Are we entering into a QE infinity dynamic?. . To end, and as I said some weeks ago, I think this is not the appropiate instrument to bet on the 10 Y german yield increase. . . Should we take into account the roll over effects since Brexit (June 2016), I think Bund currently quotes at similar or even higher level
Apr 4: "Well, might get the meltdown in equities after all, that would be marvelous for bears later, staying flat until that risk deminishes or happened."
can ECB keep yields low in inflation overshoots without raising rates ? . they have no plan B on QE exit as dithered too long on the QE injection AND NOW LEFT WITH BUND FLU
Bearish outlook for Bunds this year, shorting anything above 159 now as Bunds are overpriced compared to T-notes. I might be totally wrong but this morning my account is increasing.
On fundamental basis, shorting Bund is not the correct way/instrument to bet on rising German 10 Y yield in the medium/long run. Bund highs was on 24th June 2016 (Brexit) at above 168 points (by taht time 10 Y Yield was -0.28%). Today, we have got Bund quoting at above 159 points; but if you take into account the roll over effect since June 2016, we are not so distant from the 168 point that I mentioned before while we have got 10 Y German Yield at aprox 0.5%
Thats a very good point, a lot of the downside in the bund futures was untradeable, especially after brexit where the front month did sell off much, but the month after was waaay lower. The Bund says "But I am a bond!! But I do not yield"
War GamesThanks! I did have some successes shorting the Bund but overall it's been a bit exhausting. Currently back long in coffee and NQ after successful oil short yesterday.
Looking like a bull flag that started 28 March. Rectangle that slopes down a little. This will go up if stock indexes drop. But at same later stage Debt will drop as well because it is overpriced and inflation is higher in reality. Staying out of shorts for a while.
La realidad de los mercados de Bonos es que pese a que estamos oyendo que los tipos van a subir, seguro -no me cabe duda-, pero cuando? Porque el Bund por ejemplo está en la realidad de los mercados de Bonos, ¿por qué estamos aquí oyendo que los tipos van a subir, seguro -no me cabe duda-, pero cuando? Porque el BUND por ejemplo está contando con los ROLOS de cada VENCIMIENTO en que estamos a 1,5 FIGURAS DEL MÁXIMO HISTORICO QUE FUE 168,19 .... . Obviamente que hay mas recorrido hacia abajo que hacia arriba, salvo hundimiento de la RENTA VARIABLE USA A LA QUE SEGUIRIAN EL RESTO DE BOLSAS.o los ROLOS de cada VENCIMIENTO es que estamos a 1,5 FIGURAS DEL MAXIMO HISTORICO QUE FUE 168,19 ..... Obviamente que hay mas recorrido hacia abajo que hacia arriba, salvo hundimiento de la RENTA VARIABLE USA A LA QUE SEGUIRIAN EL RESTO DE BOLSAS .......
Restarted short because FED is into Quantitative Tightening and ECB and BOJ will have to follow at some stage away from QE even if they do not like it. US still trend setter.
Government debt is replacing money now. Negative real interest rates. Inflation is higher than publicized. Interest rate policy is dicatting the world. Pure tiranny.
War GamesWell spotted. It's been like that for how many years? Whole social housing corporations in Netherlands blown up by interest derivatives trading. Not many bond bears alive I would think.
Sooo... Trendline is in jeprody right now, lets see if they can cool their jets before the close, will probably be looking to bail out of this short tomorrow unless there is a prompt reversal and close below 160.50. I honestly do not have any idea who is buying these things right now, but somebody is.
Does any body know why yesterday's 10Y german yield increase (from 0.52% to 0.58%) meant no movement (drop in this case) in the bund derivative?. . Thank you in advance for your help
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