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Morning Bid: Rates relief; harvest gloom

Published 05/07/2024, 12:37 AM
Updated 05/07/2024, 12:40 AM
© Reuters. The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, May 6, 2024. REUTERS/Staff

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Gilts and London stocks were poised to catch up with global gains, following Monday's market holiday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplaying the risk of rate hikes and weaker-than-expected U.S. labour data has renewed confidence in rate cuts.

FTSE futures suggest the cash index is heading higher into record territory at the open, following gains in Asia and on Wall Street.

German factory orders are the highlight of the economic calendar, along with European retail sales numbers. UBS reports earnings.

In currencies, there is talk that speculators who have been heavily long dollars are paring back and maybe even preparing for the dollar's much-anticipated fall alongside U.S. rates.

However in price terms, the greenback has so far turned only to meandering rather than outright dropping. Indeed, it continued to rise for a second straight session on the yen, even as the spectre of official intervention hangs over the currency.

Australia's central bank left interest rates on hold, as expected, though it said the inflation rate remains high and is falling slower than expected.

Large flows from mainland China into Hong Kong's equity market have put downward pressure on the yuan. While the Hang Seng was set to snap a 10-day winning streak on Tuesday with a modest drop, it is nearly 15% above last month's lows.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index hit a 15-month high.

Commodities may pose another challenge to the comfort on the interest rate path. Oil has steadied while a ceasefire deal proves elusive in the Middle East.

Chicago corn climbed for a fifth session in a row, touching its highest for the year so far and wheat touched a nine-month high as adverse weather roils the outlook.

Late frosts have hit Russia on the cusp of harvest season. Wet weather in the U.S. corn belt has planting behind schedule. Brazil is flooded and in Argentina leafhoppers are spreading a harmful bacteria that stunts growth and loosens corn kernels.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

© Reuters. The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, May 6, 2024. REUTERS/Staff

Economics: Eurozone retail sales, German factory orders

Earnings: UBS, Disney

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