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5,868.80 -12.20    -0.21%
2:39:35 - Closed. Currency in AUD ( Disclaimer )
Type: Index
Market: Australia
# Components: 200
  • Volume: 498,399,999
  • Open: 5,881.00
  • Day's Range: 5,862.70 - 5,887.00
S&P/ASX 200 5,868.80 -12.20 -0.21%

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All Comments (185)
Dar Turtle
Dar Turtle Apr 13, 2018 5:46PM ET
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More to fall
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Ali Bazzi
Mrs_Crude Mar 23, 2018 12:41AM ET
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hi
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VJ VJ
VJ VJ Dec 18, 2017 11:49PM ET
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Aaron, Hurst,. whats going on in ASX. how long and how far you see it. Seems old assessments of this going down did not work so far. Any new analysis?
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Uri Paran
Uri Paran Dec 18, 2017 11:49PM ET
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Interesting
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Nov 08, 2017 9:37PM ET
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Take a look at the Nikkei up almost a 1000pts in 4 days..Well That's what you get when BOJ is buying stocks..
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Nov 08, 2017 9:37PM ET
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Ganntrader Wouldn't doubt it. Happened in 2009!!  Yes I understand about time cycles. My fixed cycles caught the June high in the DAX but market has become lright translated since then and dragged out as you say from central bank intervention. However largest timeframe I use (19yrs) suggested a peak as of October/Nov.  It will come soon enough, just need patience and slowly scale into short positions with adequate margin buffer.. As you pointed out in your video we are starting to see neg divergence in the DJIA and I also saw diminishing volume accompanying the spinning top candles you talked about.. Market has been really struggling up the last 4-5 sessions.. As for the Nikkei a new bull market started in 2009. From 1990 to 2009 there are 19 years ( Metonic Cycle). The advance we have had since 2009 is impulsive but the 5 wave structure must be almost done with this W5 blo.wing off the last few weeks
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Nov 08, 2017 9:37PM ET
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Spot on..I had a discussion with other Gann specialist traders who really know Ganns time cycles..We discussed about the major 90 year synodic cycle for Wall st..They called extreme market moves for 2017 back in 2013 and priced the Dow top from 23400-24500 pretty accurate..But the Dow will top out during late 2017 and by their forecast the panic of 2018 will hit which will follow a long mark decline lasting through till 2021 than a great depression to follow..Yes the Dow is looking very exhausted, if you watched my TA I noted the bearish divergence on the RSI to indicate a sell coming..Which supports my November astro cycle forecast
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Nov 08, 2017 9:37PM ET
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Ganntrader Yep. Watched all your videos Aaron.  I can't say too much about a 90 year cycle as I have never looked that far ahead. But if you click on my profile, at the bottom of the page you can download some cycle work I did back in 2010. Back then we had just put in the GFC low and did some Hurst cycles analysis on the SP500 based on quarterly closing price bars. Back then then it was quite obvious that we where in for a big  and long bull as 2 of the 3 cycles had only just turned up. The 3rd which is the 26 bar cycle was still falling and I am not sure what it's doing now but will update the analysis and post a link there. . More importantly you can see from the other links I have there what the market in terms of Hurst cycles is doing at this juncture.
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Nov 08, 2017 9:37PM ET
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Yeah I had a look at your cycles very good analysis mate
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Nov 08, 2017 9:37PM ET
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Ganntrader I have added a link for SPX Quarterly bars cycles at this juncture.  They pretty much gel/suggest exactly with your and the other Gann specialists musings. As you can 2 of the 3 cycles I have decomposed are already pointed down. It's not precision timing and this type of analysis can never be, but it gives you an idea of just how epic the next decline will be in terms of magnitude))
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Nov 06, 2017 8:41PM ET
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At the moment everything I have in my toolbox to measure US and European indices suggest they are at an extreme ( has been that way for about the last 2 months) but markets continue to rise, propped up by central banks in just a handful of strongly weighted stocks. The trend for declining vs advancing stocks is down, open interest in the Dow E mini is diminishing but there is still enough money coming in to trickle up the indices with next to no volatility.. . . Imaginary curvilinear envelope could be offering some resistance soon...https://invst.ly/5qvc6..Nasdaq also bumping up against long term TL..https://invst.ly/5qvfe
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Nov 06, 2017 8:41PM ET
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For those interested if they go to my profile and click provided they can download the latest cycles analysis for the DJIA. Need to open with excel after downloading. To save time I have used one cycle length throughout all time frames. Technically this is not correct  as each should have their unique cycle length but it's all I have time for ATM
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Nov 05, 2017 9:33PM ET
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VJ other I have updated my analysis and included a cycle forecast for the month of Nov..
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Morten Smedegaard
Smithguard Nov 05, 2017 9:33PM ET
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Where can we find it?
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Nov 05, 2017 9:33PM ET
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SmithguardGo to my profile and there's my link under education..
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Nov 05, 2017 9:33PM ET
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Thanks for the update Aaron.. . Will be interesting to see if it can break much above 6000. We are in the 5th wave up from the Feb 2016 low and at an area (6000) of previous price rejection.   It's primarily the resources pushing it up ATM driving it.  A quick look at BHP chart shows the potential of further gains if a possible inverted H & S is the correct pattern.. . https://invst.ly/5qx6s. . Have been bullish on resources for months now and I am very confident AUDUSD put in a major Jan 2016.. . Having said that have not been bullish the banks and could make heads or tails for the ASX200 for bullish resources and bearish bank scenario
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VJ VJ
VJ VJ Nov 02, 2017 11:27PM ET
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Hi Aaron, let me know if you have done it already. Well it looks like ASX has to push it to keep in line with corrupt dow but as it is good index it will still do correction in between and climb up again.. . So lets say if Dow reaches to 500 ASX may go upto 5970 but even dow just fall to 400 ASX will also do a quick correction and can go upto 5870 or so..but will again spike to 5960 with dow,. Only way is we are quick to take advantage of correction and clear shorts. When it climbs up take shots again.
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Oct 30, 2017 2:26AM ET
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VJ If I take the current fixed cycles charts at face value then we are very close to a high here. That's not say that we can't double top or even put in a false break high here. I started scaling in short positions again last week, but adding will be largely dependent on US markets which although have reached an extreme and vulnerable still have given no signs of rolling over. Although looking like this week is crucial and some cracks may start appearing finally.. . https://invst.ly/5mboc. . https://invst.ly/5mbpw
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VJ VJ
VJ VJ Oct 30, 2017 2:26AM ET
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Thanks Hurst
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 30, 2017 2:26AM ET
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VJ VJI'll add an updatr to my profile link later...
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VJ VJ
VJ VJ Oct 30, 2017 2:26AM ET
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Hi Aaron, let me know if you have done it already. Well it looks like ASX has to push it to keep in line with corrupt dow but as it is good index it will still do correction in between and climb up again.. . So lets say if Dow reaches to 500 ASX may go upto 5970 but even dow just fall to 400 ASX will also do a quick correction and can go upto 5870 or so..but will again spike to 5960 with dow,. Only way is we are quick to take advantage of correction and clear shorts. When it climbs up take shots again.
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VJ VJ
VJ VJ Oct 27, 2017 1:14AM ET
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Hi Aaron, Hurst,. With a sudden drop in ASX to 5850 do we now expect more highs or longer time span for current high?
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Oct 24, 2017 1:18AM ET
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Hurst Price projection for this leg up estimate: Approximately 5913-5920 (Target Reached)
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 24, 2017 1:18AM ET
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I had the same target took a short from it..
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Oct 24, 2017 1:18AM ET
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Ganntrader  Me too Aaron.  I have also added to my Aussie Gold Miners because I think spot Gold is winding up for a big move here. Not quite there yet, still has to do a little more fancy footwork to take out more shorts but otherwise from a cycle perspective and also a pattern of trend at the moment perspective  as it's been a struggle down of late.. . Also Aussie Gold miners historically  to be at their best seasonally around December for Santa Claus season
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Oct 24, 2017 1:11AM ET
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Present Dynamic Cycles for ASX200 today as follows.1Hr Bars : Pointed Down .5Hr Bars: Cycles Pointed Down .8Hr Bars: Cycles Pointed Up/Topping .Daily Bars: Topping l.Weekly Bars: Topping
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Oct 23, 2017 12:37AM ET
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ASX200 Dynamic Cycles Update:. LONG TERM. Monthly: Topping. Weekly: Topping/starting to roll over. . SHORT TERM. Daily: Pointed up. 8Hr: Pointed Up. 5Hr: Cycles churning. 1Hr: Pointed up. . So some short term further gains expected. Will update when shorter term cycles roll over
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 23, 2017 12:37AM ET
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I agree and ASX has hit a time cycle point on Ganns square of 90 too..All Markets as we've discussed should be entering new cycle phase..
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VJ VJ
VJ VJ Oct 20, 2017 12:54AM ET
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Thanks Aaron, I already have positions so either have to cut or hold..both ASX and nasdaq.
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 20, 2017 12:54AM ET
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No worries and make sure to check my link...:D
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 19, 2017 10:41PM ET
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I now have a link in my profile under education...
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VJ VJ
VJ VJ Oct 19, 2017 10:03PM ET
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Hi Aaron, Hurst,. With yesterday's correction is ASX/NASDAQ looking for new heights? Whats the project you foresee as per your respective techniques
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 19, 2017 10:03PM ET
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Hi Vj, Dow futures has taken off on the new of Senate has adopted budget proposel...Crazy bulls specualting this will increase the speed of Trumps tax bill.As for the ASX and all other indicies I'm on the sideline and will be for a bit as this last irrational moves in bulls tend to be very risky to short as we don't exactly know when the top will be in place...Best to wait till we get a capulation sell off with heavy volume..On the Dow that would be 500pt plus one day sell off...That's when you'll likely see a decline coming...Till now keep your powder dry..
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 15, 2017 9:25PM ET
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Sorry guys was on holidays last week... ASX broke out of the long range to the upside..Was a but surprised, but not as world markets on a tear.... Overall I think we're seeing a last very irrational moves in the markets..For me I'm not buying it..At the moment I'll keep my powder dry and wait for signals to go short... . ASX- is overbought at the current levels hit major resistance @5857. https://invst.ly/5gk-d
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tim robbins
tim robbins Oct 15, 2017 9:25PM ET
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What level do you think the reversal will happen?
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 15, 2017 9:25PM ET
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@Tom watch today's high as it's been rejected from a major resistance..Confirmation will come later tonight U.S. time..
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Mani Kay
Mani Kay Oct 15, 2017 9:25PM ET
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Ganntrader The ASX 200 index finished up 49 points at 5,896 yesterday, its highest closing level since early May. any chance of reversal now?
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VJ VJ
VJ VJ Oct 12, 2017 11:30PM ET
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BTW ASX is now racing. Think its again dow and dax effect. But I feel as this index is different even though other big index go down if AU economy is good it will still stay more up compared to them?. . Aaraon/Hurst any chances you see this going further up and cross 5830 in coming weeks?
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VJ VJ
VJ VJ Oct 12, 2017 11:27PM ET
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Thank you Hurst. Good luck.
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VJ VJ
VJ VJ Oct 12, 2017 3:21AM ET
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Hi Aaron/Hurst- Nasdaq continue to be bullish from weeks now.  It has still not reached 6123 which you pointed to be final top before it collapse. Do you still hold your view you posted earlier?
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Oct 12, 2017 3:21AM ET
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Still hold, as not much changed in the last 5 days
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 08, 2017 9:29PM ET
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ASX 200 of the races today..No surprise reall given Japan, U.S markets are closed..The algo's have to pump something! I'll look to take short positions around 5760 area..
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Oct 08, 2017 6:04AM ET
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Posted this on nasdaq forum:. This is the longer term EW pattern I have been working with in the NASDAQ 100 for a while now which if correct suggests we are toward the end of an EW Ending Diagonal pattern. Have been waiting for a “throw over” above the upper trendline which we got last week.. https://invst.ly/5dnr-. Now in an Ending diagonal pattern wave 1 is the largest wave in terms of magnitude. Wave 3 is never the shortest so this means that magnitude of wave 5 cannot exceed that of wave 3.  If it does then the whole wave count/pattern is wrong and invalidated (above 6123)  This offers a good R/R if it works out IMO and well worth a go.. So will be interesting to see how it pans out. Also some interesting timing analysis. Incidentally markets topped 12th October 2007 before GFC. https://invst.ly/5dn-e. . https://invst.ly/5do24
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 08, 2017 6:04AM ET
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Cycle Trend TraderYeah all we can do is wait and see it we get a hit with these time cylces.. Over the weekend I spoke to a lot of well respected Traders.. Michael Jenkins being one of them.. Michael is very good at calling market tops and bottoms and called every market top since crash of 1987.. Even Michael has been a fustrated with S&P, Dow of late as there seems to be this relentless buying regardles of any bad news... We both agreed that big problem is all the money the Central banks have pumped into the system and could take a bit longer to drain before we finally the bubble burst..... . . You look at hte Faang stocks which have driven the Nasdaq to these nose bleed levels... . . Netflix has a P/E of over 200!. Amazon over 200!. The rest have very high P/E's but those two just insnae really is..There I hear this Garbage from Wall st Analysts raising there price targets on Netflix.... living in a very delusional time.... . As I said I'll see if we get hits on those dates..If not this could go n for sometime yet!
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VJ VJ
VJ VJ Oct 08, 2017 6:04AM ET
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Cycle Trend Trader an Aaron- thanks mates...btw am holding 5 shorts on Nasdaq from long..:-).. I also feel that the index is testing the patience and those who show should be rewarded . Is common trading principle.
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 08, 2017 6:04AM ET
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Your welcome VJ... To be honest I'm getting a bit frustrated with the complete price manipulation mainly coming from the central banks... Not only market but everything is in a huge bubble, propert price around the Globe, Bond price prices... This all has to do with the CB's illegally printing money to either buy assetts or lend it to their big investment bank crooks... I listend to Harry Dent over the weekend in a recent intereview and Mr dent believes loan defaults will start to sky rocker very soon if not now...Everything from US student loan debt, Auto loan debt, morguage debt... Thing is this can take time to show it's ugly head and you can bet the main stream business media will not talk about it ..Till we get a major investment bank declaring bankrupt..In the mean time the crooks will use the algo to squeeze the shorts out of the markets..
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Oct 08, 2017 6:04AM ET
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Aaron. I bought b Michael S Jenkins course about 15 years ago I know of him))  Specifically I was interested in his application of the Square of 9 and time and price squaring analysis.
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 08, 2017 6:04AM ET
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JM Hurst Yeah I've watched some of his methods on YouTube..Michael has a good understanding of Gann method, Fibonacci ratios..But as I said even Michael is getting tired of calling market tops and the market continues to make new highs
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 03, 2017 8:18PM ET
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Down again only market that adheres to fundamentals to company valuations..
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Oct 03, 2017 8:18PM ET
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Agreed))  As for other major world indices their over stretching due to government intervention and manipulation will come to a head soon enough. . . No matter how long or far a market is stretched, eventually it will seek it's own level. Volatility has really diminished in the US Indices. Just the quiet before the storm))
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 02, 2017 9:45PM ET
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Good old ASX while the Dow,Dax  is flying up  on total complancy..ASX still  trades within this long range with a decent sell off from the open..It was rejected perfectly from a strong resistance point as it should...
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Oct 02, 2017 9:45PM ET
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Dynamic cycles I use always work so well with ASX!! SP500 was quite good before GFC but has been a challenge since with trends stretching out further dude to the manipulation.
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 02, 2017 9:45PM ET
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Cycle Trend TraderAgreed mate... Even though I make a lot of technical Analysis on Dax,Dow, S & P 500 I hardly trade them due to rigged manipulation as you pointed out.. In regards to Dow, S & P I'm keeping a close eye on them as I'm seeing correaltions I've seen in the past with prior market tops before a crash has occurred... . . I find this long sideways patterns on the ASX very interesting every attempt to break higher has been met with both strong resistance and caution... ASX knows it needs to correct down by some %20 or more.. But it's in a holding pattern till the manipulators decide when they want to crash the Dow  S&P....
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Oct 02, 2017 9:45PM ET
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Ganntrader   I find that the  manipulation in these indices makes trading them using TA over the short term a challenge sometimes.. In situations like this I  find easier to step back and look at the bigger picture as applying TA on the DAX and US Indices over the longer timeframes such as weekly and monthly charts contains less noise and some really textbook patterns have appeared now in the last 6 months))
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Oct 02, 2017 9:45PM ET
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Totally the weekly and monthly is where I apply a lot of Ganns methods
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Sep 27, 2017 7:09PM ET
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Good morning all... . ASX200 could be in for a difficult next few weeks according to this geometric trend line analysis! Dynamic Cycles which I am unable to post here add confluence to the 5500 area suggesting the same)):. . https://invst.ly/59yc8. . Time cycles suggest an October low of sorts, but I suspect this will only be temporary. . https://invst.ly/59yis
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Sep 21, 2017 7:38PM ET
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Agreed Aaron. Now just waiting for the banks to fully join to fuel the downtrend
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Aaron Podoba
Ganntrader Sep 21, 2017 7:38PM ET
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Yeah bit surprised the banks have held up with all the the fraud associated with them... +10 on your TA on the DAX forum I,e DAX,DOW wave 5 in very late stage..I'm expecting a sell off sometime this week..
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Cycle Trend Trader
Cycle Trend Trader Sep 21, 2017 7:38PM ET
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Ganntrader   Thanks Aaron!!. . I hope so, I have been short this index since April/May a number of times, only to be caught in the sideways pattern for the last 4 months that really through a spanner in the works with TA for the ASX200.  Confused me somewhat the last 2 months with things only starting to clear in the TA I use only in the last few weeks.. . Am short the DAX and SP500 too, Should be an interesting next couple of months
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