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Will 2024 Be a Prosperous Year for China?

Published 01/08/2024, 03:12 AM
Updated 03/27/2024, 08:10 AM

After a period of strong gains and a close of the year near all-time highs, markets now seem to be facing a more tense climate with profit-taking on the world's major stock exchanges. Volatility has again become a major factor, with investors becoming more cautious and uncertain about possible interest rate cuts.

For our weekly appointment, we will focus on the most interesting stocks and futures contracts of the moment, as well as examine the general macroeconomic situation in the markets. 

The stock of Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA) has been performing excellently in the stock market. During the last session, Oppenheimer increased his recommendation from "market performance" to "outperformance." According to the analyst responsible for the stock, there will be numerous catalysts in the next two years that will drive the lab's growth. Moderna is expected to have as many as five products on the market by 2026.
Hang Seng Index-Daily Chart

It was a difficult week for shares of Mobileye Global (NASDAQ:MBLY) Inc MBLY Group. The stock fell 25 percent on a sales warning and a rating cut by Wolfe Research from "Outperform" to "Peer Perform." The company, known for its autonomous driving technologies, issued a sales alert due to excess inventory at its major customers. Mobileye expects first-quarter revenues to decline 50 percent from a year earlier and has revised downward its forecast for the fourth quarter 2023.

In the energy market, oil prices posted a modest 1 percent growth on the back of rising tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, crude oil prices remain under pressure after a difficult 2023 in which they fell 10 percent. According to the latest monthly report from the U.S. Energy Agency, oil inventories declined by 5.5 million barrels but refined product inventories rose sharply due to weak U.S. consumption. 

The industrial metals market, including copper, begins the year in decline in 2024. Copper prices in London fell below $8,400 per metric ton due to the strengthening dollar. Nickel also declined, influenced by increased production in Indonesia. Meanwhile, gold fell due to rising bond yields and fairly strong U.S. employment data. I recently wrote an article analyzing the forecast for the gold market, expecting a decline in the coming months.
Fisker Inc-Daily Chart

The year 2023 was a year of recovery for stock markets, after a difficult period in 2022. Technology stocks rebounded strongly, while most financial markets in the West and Asia experienced a sustained recovery. The only exception was China, which struggled to rebound. In particular, the Hong Kong stock market recorded its fourth consecutive year of decline and was even outperformed by the Indian market in terms of capitalization. In 2024, we expect the Chinese revival to be a major theme to monitor, along with the start of the central banks' monetary easing cycle and the U.S. presidential election scheduled for November.

My focus is currently on the future Chinese Hang Seng Gen 2024 index, where I am applying my accumulation buying strategy. I am following the same strategy on the Fisker (NYSE:FSR) stock.

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