Gold stabilizes after nonfarm payrolls; near record levels
EUR/USD reached my Wave (iii) projection target range on the dot… This always delights me, I feel cocky, knowing where the Wave (iv) must stall on the correction… but it didn’t…
Welcome to the seasonal un-joy that pre-Xmas markets deliver…
Frankly, the Europeans are a mess right now and it seems this will continue today, particularly in the Continentals. Tread (and trade) with care but if no clear signal develops, don’t take any risks. GBP/USD may be a little different. Its failure to break above 1.5763 is notable. I’d like to call it lower but a bit more development is required to confirm a more bearish outcome. Again, if this approach doesn’t work then go have a pre-Xmas aperitif. It’ll be far more satisfying…
Meanwhile the Aussie made a marginal new high and then the decline continued. However, even this currency pair is looking a little like it has already been at the drinks cabinet. Like GBP/USD, I’d like to see this lower but the structure has become increasingly complex. Thus, just note that the downside is still the major risk so don’t fight any new lows…
The JPY pairs are a bit like the Tale of Two Cities. While USD/JPY dipped a little more to 117.43, it has remained above the 117.23 low. I can’t point to any strong reversal indications but the depth of the rally is quite encouraging. If this is to continue moving higher then it needs to make up its mind over today. The only possible drawback is EUR/JPY that doesn’t seem to know what it wants to do… I found it difficult to identify a clean structure but without doubt, if USD/JPY moves to new highs (above yesterday’s) it would likely have the impact of dragging the cross behind it.
At this point, it looks like today could be another difficult day…