Breaking News
Get 40% Off 0

What Macy’s Guidance Means for Retail

By (Thomas Hughes )Stock MarketsJan 10, 2023 05:16AM ET
What Macy’s Guidance Means for Retail
By (Thomas Hughes )   |  Jan 10, 2023 05:16AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
  • Macy's cut guidance and the market cut its share price.
  • The stock is in a range but will likely hit the low end before the high one.
  • Analysts' sentiment is pressuring the market lower and should not be expected to change.

Macy’s (NYSE:M) just cut its guidance, and the stock is down more than 7.0%. The news had a lesser effect on the broader retail sector (NYSE:XRT) than it might have, but investors should not be complacent about the news. Macy’s says the peak holiday shopping season was as-expected than slightly-better-than-expected but the off-peak times were much worse than forecast.

What this means for Macy’s and the broad sector is calendar Q4 results may meet the analyst's expectations but the outlook for the Q1 period could darken. If these “non-peak” results turn into a trend and the first 2 - 3 months of the year see a downturn in consumer activity the retail sector will most likely come crashing down.

Macy’s Lower Guidance, Downside Risks Prevail

Macy’s lowered its guidance, but the news is mixed. The company lowered its revenue outlook but maintained its guidance for earnings due to inventory management and mix. The risk is that revenue, which is guided to below the analyst's consensus, will be even weaker than expected, and the margin will also come under pressure.

The company is now expecting revenue to fall in the low end of the forecast range, somewhere in the vicinity of $8.16 to $8.28 billion compared to the consensus of $8.30, with no change to the EPS. However, the midpoint of the current range is below the analyst consensus. The takeaway is that results will be weak, and there is no reason to expect the guidance to be any better, nor is there a reason to expect anything different from other retailers.

"Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales were in line with our expectations, while the week leading up to and following Christmas were ahead. However, the lulls of the non-peak holiday weeks were deeper than anticipated … This has contributed to clean inventories and an expected gross margin rate roughly in line with previously issued fourth-quarter guidance,”

Said Macy’s CEO Jeff Genette. “Based on current macro-economic indicators and our proprietary credit card data, we believe the consumer will continue to be pressured in 2023, particularly in the first half, and have planned inventory mix and depth of initial buys accordingly.

The Analysts Are Weighing On Macy’s

Macy’s analyst's sentiment has been souring in recent months, and that may change following the investor day event, but that is a big maybe. The guidance update is not confidence inspiring, and the trend in sentiment is downward, so investors should expect that pressure to continue. The consensus rating is steady at Hold, but the price target is moving steadily lower and will likely move even lower before it hits bottom.

The institutions are weighing on share prices as well. The institutional activity was mixed for the 1st 3 quarters of 2022 but turned decidedly bearish in the 4th quarter. Total selling was not much, but it did help put a cap on price action, and it may do so again. Macy’s will next report earnings at the end of February.

The Technical Outlook: Range Bound Macy’s Moves Lower

Macy’s price action is range bound but moving lower within that range. The guidance update has the stock down more than 7.0%, and this is something investors should expect from names like Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS), TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) and even Target (NYSE:TGT) and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) as the earnings season progresses.

This could lead to a retest of the $16 level, a 25% decline in the market cap for Macy's. If this trend is seen across the retail sector, not only will the XRT price action implode, but it may bring down the entire S&P 500..

Macy's Stock Chart
Macy's Stock Chart

Original Post

What Macy’s Guidance Means for Retail

Related Articles

What Macy’s Guidance Means for Retail

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.
  • Any comment you publish, together with your profile, will be public on and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email