Week Ahead: Tech Volatility Clouds Market Ahead of Jobs, CPI, Retail Data

Key Highlights:

• Japanese stocks surged after PM Sanae Takaichi’s historic election win, fueling expectations of increased government spending on defense and AI. The Nikkei jumped as much as 4.2% to a record, and the Topix climbed up to 2.6%, led by electronics and banks.
• Gold topped $5,000/oz, rising as much as 1.6% early as dip-buyers returned after a volatile week. The rally was bolstered by Japan’s election outcome, which raises expectations for looser fiscal policy and yen weakness, which is positive for bullion. Gold is about 11% below its Jan. 29 peak but up roughly 15% year to date.
• Oil fell as Middle East tensions eased, lowering near-term disruption risks. Iran and the U.S. held talks in Oman on Tehran’s nuclear program, with Iran calling the meeting “a step forward.”
• Asian stocks rose at the open, lifted by Friday’s Wall Street rally after a volatile week. Markets jumped in South Korea and Japan—buoyed in Tokyo by PM Sanae Takaichi’s election win and U.S. futures were firmer after the S&P 500 closed about 2% higher on Friday amid dip-buying and improved consumer sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi, a standout for AI bets, surged 4%.
• Goldman Sachs warns trend-following algo funds could drive more US stock selling this week. A renewed drop might trigger roughly $33 billion of automated sales now, and an S&P 500 breach below 6,707 could unlock as much as $80 billion more over the next month. Thin liquidity and short‑gamma positioning may keep markets choppy, amplifying swings as dealers buy rallies and sell into declines.
• Investors grew jittery about AI’s economic impact after Anthropic unveiled new tools, prompting a broad selloff that wiped $611 billion from 164 software, financial-services, and asset-management stocks. Despite the rout, fundamentals show little deterioration. S&P 500 software and services earnings are forecast to rise 19% in 2026, and valuations have cheapened (Goldman’s software basket fell to a record-low 21x estimated earnings).

Dow futures ticked up Sunday night, along with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures. Markets staged a broad rebound Friday: Bitcoin surged after steep losses; the Dow climbed to a record above 50,000, and the S&P 500 pushed back above its 50‑day moving average. The Nasdaq, however, stayed below that key level and finished the week notably lower.

US Economic Data and Earnings Calendar:

Investors will be monitoring the delayed January jobs figures, consumer inflation (CPI), and retail sales reports in the coming days. The employment and CPI releases were postponed by a brief government shutdown last week, and December retail sales data was also delayed due to the 2025 shutdown.

The Fed still sees inflation as "somewhat elevated," with January’s consumer price index due Friday to shed more light. With the central bank describing risks to inflation and employment as diminished, markets expect no further rate cuts until the June meeting, by which time Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, could be in place.

After the Fed’s year-end cut, futures still price roughly two additional quarter-point cuts by December, a view that held after Warsh’s nomination last month.

Economic calendar:

Monday, 02/09

• Fed speakers: Gov. Stephen Miran; Gov. Christopher Waller; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Tuesday, 02/10

• U.S. retail sales (Dec); NFIB Small Business Optimism (Dec); Employment Cost Index (Q4); Import Price Index (Dec); Business Inventories (Nov)
• Fed speaker: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack

Wednesday, 02/11

• U.S. employment report (Jan)
• Fed speaker: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman
• Monthly U.S. federal budget (Jan)

Thursday, 02/12

• Existing‑home sales (Jan)
• Initial jobless claims (week ending 02/07)
• Fed speaker: Gov. Stephen Miran

Friday, 02/13

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Jan)

Earnings Calendar:

Monday, Feb. 9

Apollo Global Management (APO), Onsemi (ON), Loews (L), Principal Financial (PFG).

Tuesday, Feb. 10

Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO), AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN), Gilead Sciences (GILD), BP (BP), CVS Health (CVS), Spotify Technology (SPOT), Duke Energy (DUK), Marriott (MAR), Ferrari (RACE), Ecolab (ECL), Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD), Cloudflare (NET), Ford Motor (F), Honda Motor (HMC), Barclays (BCS).

Wednesday, Feb. 11

Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD), T-Mobile (TMUS), AppLovin (APP), Shopify (SHOP).

Thursday, Feb. 12

Applied Materials (AMAT), Arista Networks (ANET), Unilever (UL), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Brookfield (BN), Airbnb (ABNB), Coinbase Global (COIN).

Friday, Feb. 13

Enbridge (ENB), Moderna (MRNA)

Cisco (CSCO) reports fiscal Q2 after Wednesday’s close. Analysts expect adjusted EPS $1.02 (up 9%) and revenue $15.1B (up 8%). Product orders are seen dipping slightly after 13% growth last quarter; AI orders may cool (Q1 AI orders were $1.3B vs. $800M prior). Investors will watch upside from the Nvidia AI‑networking partnership and whether Cisco’s security business rebounds after a weak Q1 despite the Splunk deal.

AstraZeneca (AZN) reports Q4 early Tuesday. Analysts expect flat adjusted EPS with sales up about 4%. The recent switch from Nasdaq to the NYSE has sent shares soaring up roughly 108% in February.

Robinhood (HOOD) is expected to report EPS down about 38% to $0.63 while revenue rises nearly 34% to $1.36 billion, driven by growth in options, equities, and other transaction revenue. FactSet forecasts crypto revenue falling about 28% to $259 million. The firm has faced regulatory scrutiny over prediction markets, it halted sports prediction contracts in Nevada in November amid litigation and its shares plunged over the week through Friday.

Analysts expect McDonald’s (MCD) EPS to rise about 8%, its best quarter since Q4 2023 while Coca‑Cola (KO) is projected to show slight deceleration, though shares are up 8% since a January breakout.

By week’s end, more than 80% of Dow components will have reported.

Technical Analysis:

DJIA Index

• The index broke out of a rectangular bullish pattern on Friday.
• Target 51,000, so long as 49,970 holds.

DJIA Daily Candlestick Chart

Nasdaq 100 Index

• NDX broke 25,200 support Wednesday last week.
• My note said a break below 25,200 would target 24,650.
• The index fell to 24,455 then reclaimed 24,650.
• Now heading back toward 25,200 and then 25,370.
• A breakout above 25,370 would target the 25,850 resistance.

NDX Daily Candlestick Chart

SPX Index

• SPX held the 6,790–6,780 support zone on the second decline this year.
• The index is forming a rectangular consolidation.
• Target 7,010 provided 6,780 support stays intact.

SPX Daily Candlestick Chart

Weekly US Indices Probability Map:

• The U.S. weekly market probability map for Feb 09 - 13, 2026 suggests the U.S. Indices would open mixed with higher close, and midweek Rally
• These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
• The sentiment readings are driven by a seasonality-based scoring system.

***

Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.

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