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US Oil Fund Rejection at Midpoint Raises Odds of Deeper Pullback

ByMichele Schneider
Published 07/17/2025, 02:57 AM
CL-1.79%
USO3.41%

Now that the calendar range for July is set, let’s look at oil futures. 

First, there is the chart of United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), the ETF for the US oil fund for those who prefer to trade the ETFs rather than commodities. USO ETF-Daily Chart

USO Daily chart shows a couple of interesting data points. 

  1. It has underperformed the benchmark since late June. 
  2. The momentum (real motion) remains in a bullish divergence to price. 
  3. While it failed the January 6-month calendar range after the ME conflict, it is now trading right in the middle of the new July 6-month calendar range. (The new red and green horizontal lines). 
  4. The July calendar range lines up with the 200-day moving average. Perfect risk. 
  5. A move over the July calendar range high would be very bullish. 

Before we buy or sell any commodity ETF, we always look at the underlying futures. 

Crude Oil Futures Price Chart

This is the September contract of WTI crude oil futures. 

  1. The July high is $68 
  2. It is above the 50-DMA while the 200-DMA comes in around 66.20 
  3. $64 huge support-the risk 
  4. With the recent 15% correction from the peak ME crisis, the longer it holds $64, the better it looks 
  5. The safest trade is the one that clears $68

ETF Summary  

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)  

S&P 500 (SPY) 621 support  

Russell 2000 (IWM) 220 support 

Dow (DIA) 442 support 

Nasdaq (QQQ) 552 support 

Regional banks (KRE) 62 pivotal  

Semiconductors (SMH) 282 support  

Transportation (IYT) 70 pivotal 

Biotechnology (IBB) 130 now must hold 

Retail (XRT) 79-80 must hold for best bullish case 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 118 support 125k next

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