Breaking News
Investing Pro 0
💎 Access the Market Tools Trusted by Thousands of Investors Get Started

U.S. Economy Set to Continue Growing in Q2

By James PicernoMarket OverviewJun 06, 2023 07:42AM ET
U.S. Economy Set to Continue Growing in Q2
By James Picerno   |  Jun 06, 2023 07:42AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio

The odds remain low that the US will slip into a recession in the second quarter, based on current GDP nowcasts compiled by Although recession forecasts endure, the numbers suggest the economy will continue to expand in the near term.

The median estimate for Q2 is a 2.0% rise in output (seasonally adjusted annual rate for GDP). The gain marks a moderately faster pace vs. the sluggish 1.3% gain reported for Q1.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its initial Q2 estimate for GDP on July 27. But with roughly half of the current quarter’s numbers in hand, the outlook is skewing positive for expecting that the US will continue to skirt an NBER-defined downturn in the current quarter.

Actual vs Expectations for Q2-2023
Actual vs Expectations for Q2-2023

Today’s Q2 nowcast marks an uptick from the 1.9% median estimate in the previous update (May 19). The key point: the persistence of moderate growth in the recent nowcasts suggests that the economy isn’t in immediate danger of contracting.

The strong gain in payrolls in May certainly supports the upbeat outlook for the near term. The economy added 339,000 jobs last month, the most since January.

Bullish numbers for the economy are also conspicuous in yesterday’s survey-based estimate of GDP for May via US Composite PMI. The index’s 54.3 print last month reflects “the fastest expansion in business activity for just over a year,” S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) reports.

“The survey data are indicative of GDP growing at an annualized rate of just over 2%, and an upturn in business expectations points to growth remaining robust as we head further into the summer,” says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Composite Output Index
Composite Output Index

A similar view has been unfolding in recent months in the analytics of The US Business Cycle Risk Report (BCRR), which has been advising subscribers for much of this year that the weak economic data in late-2022 has been rebounding. As a result, the newsletter’s primary real-time recession indicator – an aggregate of various business-cycle indexes – currently estimates a modest 12% probability that the economy is in recession.

CRP Index Chart
CRP Index Chart

There are several risk factors lurking that could tip the economy over the edge in the second half, and it would be naive to dismiss the possibility of trouble ahead. But such forecasts of recession are highly speculative at this stage. By contrast, BCRR’s forward estimates for economic activity through July strongly suggest that the US economy will continue to expand through the kickoff to Q3.

U.S. Economy Set to Continue Growing in Q2

Related Articles

U.S. Economy Set to Continue Growing in Q2

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.
  • Any comment you publish, together with your profile, will be public on and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (1)
Larry Layton
Larry Layton Jun 06, 2023 9:43PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
its not 'growing'    , they just print $1.5 trillion  and pretend it is
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email