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James Picerno

  • Analysis & Opinion

James Picerno's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

The US economic rebound picked up speed in the first quarter and even faster growth is expected for the April-through-June period, according to a set of GDP nowcasts. Economic activity in 2021’s...
Commodities continue to benefit from ongoing worries about inflation and real-time reports of price hikes for basic materials. An equal-weighted ETF that targets a broad set of commodities is a good...
Today’s post rolls out the inaugural Risk Review column for the major asset classes, a monthly update that’s the companion piece to the monthly performance report and risk-premia...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) in the long run ticked higher again in April, rising to 5.9% annualized—modestly above theprevious month’s estimate. The current...
April delivered across-the-board gains in the major asset classes as risk-assets around the world rebounded from widespread losses in March. Thanks to a strong tailwind, you had to really work hard to...
Keeping up with beta while maintaining a risk-management overlay remains challenging this year, but two of our three proprietary strategies dispatched some trivial success this week by losing...
Winning BehaviorThe winners keep winning and the losers, well, it’s a bit complicated for last week’s losers. But for the top-performers last week for our broad set of ETF proxies for...
The Federal Reserve reports that it expects faster economic growth and higher inflation—two factors that historically have triggered tighter monetary policy. But the Fed is playing a different game...
As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in Wednesday's policy announcement. Despite widespread expectations of faster growth, the central bank reasoned (persuasively or not)...
Stay short and favor junk bonds. That, at least, is what’s worked rather well so far this year, based on set of ETFs representing the major slices of US fixed-income markets. But as reflation...