Gold dip looks like a buy as central banks step in, Barclays tells investors
While nuclear, coal, solar, and hydrogen power stocks and ETFs have done well,
Oil and gas, our more traditional and somewhat abundant resources traded through various stocks and ETFs, have not done that well.
Could that change?
I am now quoted for “All energy hands on deck,” so it behooves me how cheap both oil and gas are on the futures exchanges.
How will we know when that changes?
The first chart is of the ETF USO.
What is important to note is that the price, since the end of August, has not had two consecutive closes above the 50-DMA (blue line).
We like to use this confirmation, and this is a fine example of why.
2-day closes avoid whipsaws. A single-day close above the 50-day moving average (DMA) could be due tonoise, a short squeeze, or end-of-day buying.
The two closes above show buyers are committed, not just testing resistance.
This increases the probability that the trend shift is sustainable.
Psychologically, it also keeps traders disciplined—waiting for proof instead of reacting emotionally to one big day.
Today, USO closed back over the 50-DMA.
That means the closing price on the 24th is huge.
Confirmation would mean that the trend shift this time could be sustainable.
The UNG chart (natural gas ETF) has a different use of the 50-DMA.
It has almost acted like a trendline of resistance.
Since June 2025, UNG has not closed above its 50-day moving average (DMA).
At the last rally on September 17th, the price of UNG reached right up to the 50-day moving average.
But did not clear it.
That makes it simple, really.
Want to know if oil has shifted to a bullish trend?
Wait for two consecutive closes over the 50-DMA.
Want to know if natural gas has hit its bottom?
Wait for two consecutive closes over the 50-DMA.
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
- S&P 500 (SPY) 660 support
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 240 close support
- Dow (DIA) 461 support
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 592 support
- Regional banks (KRE) 63 huge support
- Semiconductors (SMH) 310 support
- Transportation (IYT) 70 huge support
- Biotechnology (IBB) 140 pivotal
- Retail (XRT) 87 pivotal
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 110k closest support
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
