Oil prices jump after Iran says critical Strait of Hormuz to remain shut
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) EV deliveries totaled 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, leaving the company behind China’s BYD, which delivered more than 2.2 million EVs for the year. The result marks a second consecutive annual decline in Tesla EV deliveries, reinforcing the growing pressure on the company’s core automotive business. Fourth-quarter deliveries fell sharply year over year, underscoring the slowdown.
Despite the weakness in Tesla EV deliveries, investor focus has shifted away from near-term vehicle fundamentals. The stock continues to trade on expectations surrounding artificial intelligence, autonomy, and longer-term optionality rather than current auto demand. In effect, Tesla is being valued less as an EV manufacturer and more as a future AI platform.
That disconnect matters. As government incentives fade and competition intensifies, Tesla EV deliveries face increasing headwinds. While the company’s energy storage segment continues to grow, it’s small relative to the scale implied by Tesla’s market valuation. Investors are betting that future technologies can offset a slowing core business. However, that wager leaves little margin for disappointment if those promises take longer to materialize.
The Week Ahead
The first full week of the new year will bring some important economic data with it. Today, the data kicks off with the ISM manufacturing PMI for December 2025. Economists expect manufacturing activity to improve slightly from November but remain in contractionary territory.
Wednesday will bring an update on the services economy with the release of December’s ISM services PMI. The data is likely to show that the services sector remained in expansionary territory, but economists expect it to contract slightly compared to November.
The JOLTS survey for November and the ADP payrolls for December are also released on Wednesday. The ADP payrolls report will provide an early look at private sector employment trends in advance of the non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
The star of the show this week will be the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, along with an update on the unemployment rate. Investors will be closely watching the report following the questionable data released for October and November in the aftermath of the government shutdown.
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