S&P 500 First-Half Recap: Why Value Fizzled and Growth Stocks Roared Back

Published 07/02/2025, 01:35 PM

Some familiar names were among the biggest losers.

The first half of the year was indeed volatile, with wild swings that saw the Nasdaq 100 drop by more than 20%, then gain it all back, and then some.

In the first quarter, value stocks outperformed in a period marred by negative GDP growth, but in the second quarter, growth stocks stormed back, after initially plummeting on the tariff announcements.

In terms of sector, industrials performed the best, returning 12% in the first half, followed by communication services at 10.6%. Financials were up 8.4%, while utilities and technology each returned about 7.7%.

The S&P 500 was up 5.5% in the quarter. Sectors that underperformed include consumer staples, up 5.1%; materials, up 5%; real estate, up 1.7%; energy, down 1%; healthcare, off 2%; and consumer discretionary, down 4.2%.

First Half Winners

The best performing stock on the S&P 500 was energy company NRG Energy Inc (NYSE:NRG), which returned 72.6% in the first half of the year. It was buoyed by a ridiculous 68.7% in the second quarter alone. The second quarter performance got a lift from NRG’s $12 billion acquisition of the natural gas portfolio from LS Power, doubling its natural gas generation capacity.

For all its growth, NRG is still relatively cheap with a P/E ratio of 25 and a forward P/E of 21. It also has median price target of $186 per share, suggesting 21% more upside from the current price.

The next best performer on the large cap index in the first half was Howmet Aerospace. Howmet stock returned 66.1% in the first half, and 43.5% in the second quarter. Howmet makes fuel efficient engines and gas turbine components for the airplanes and the aerospace industry. The company reported record revenue in the first quarter, along with record adjusted earnings and EBITDA – and it expects continued growth as an innovator in this burgeoning space.

Howmet is trading at a high multiple of 60 times earnings and 52 times forward earnings, but it has a low 5-year PEG ratio. It has a median price target of $180, which would suggest 1% upside.

The third best stock in the first half is tech giant Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR), which finished the first half up 65.5%. It gained 58.8% in Q2 alone. Palantir, which gathers data for governments and institutions for AI models and other uses, has been a juggernaut. It returned 341% in 2024 and 179% in 2023. It has been helped this year by signing several large contracts with various agencies within the Trump administration.

Palantir has defied gravity for so long it's hard to know where it will go, but it remains ridiculously expensive, trading at 592 times earnings. Wall Street has a consensus price target of $110 per share, indicating a 15% decline over the next 12 months.

First Half Losers

The worst performers on the S&P 500 so far in 2025 include some very big names, but this is where investors can find good values.

UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH), the nation’s largest health insurer, had the biggest decline, dropping about 37% in the first half. The stock is cheap, trading at 13 times earnings, and analysts see some upside. It has a median price target of $361, suggesting an 11.3% return.

Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) was the second worst stock on the S&P 500 in the first half. It returned -20% through June 30. Salesforce is still not cheap, with a P/E of 43, but its forward P/E is a more reasonable 24. However, the consensus price target is $360 per share, so that would suggest analysts are bullish, anticipating 32% growth.

Finally, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was among the year’s worst, with its stock down 20% YTD. The Magnificent Seven stock is trading at about 32 times earnings and 25 times forward earnings. Apple stock has a median price target of $235 per share, which would suggest a 13% return over the next 12 months.

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