Solar Momentum Builds Into July With Technicals Flashing Bullish Signals

First, I have news!   

For years, I’ve written Mish’s Market Minute Daily to help decode market trends.  

Now I’m launching something new, a place to go deeper into trade setups, sector rotations, and the daily read of the market.  

Mark your calendar; Monday is the day. 

Secondly, speaking of timely information, Monday’s post on Chainlink was spot on. LINKUSD, BTC/USD and Ethereum all took off on Wednesday, so if you have not had the chance to read it, you should. 

Today’s topic is on solar. 

The American Clean Power Association had warned that tax would up to $7 billion to the wind and solar industry’s burden. 

Shares of renewable energy companies are rising after a tax on solar and wind was removed from the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. 

It still needs to clear the legislation. 

As it stands, the bill kills off incentives for domestic and utility-scale solar power as well as the clean energy production credit. 

Renewables made up made up almost 90% of all new power generation capacity in 2024. But it’s likely that even with all the changes in the bill, solar will remain the biggest technology used to implement new power generation capacity. All hands on the energy deck. 

Meanwhile, the charts tell their own story.  

The Daily chart shows a confirmed phase change to accumulation. 

However, the price stopped in its tracks at the January 6-month calendar range high. Incidentally, we will have a new calendar range for July shortly! 

Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN) is outperforming the benchmark, and the momentum indicator is in gear. 

It is the weekly chart though, that has my attention the most.  

The weekly chart shows TAN rising above the 50-week moving average for the first time since April 2023.  

This is an unconfirmed phase change, but more importantly, a reversal of a 2 plus year downtrend. 

That means we must see the 50-WMA hold for starters. 

It also means that while there is resistance along the way, the price suggests that we expect a further rebound in solar stocks. 

That makes complete sense to me, especially if oil begins to run above $68 a barrel. 

And, of course, because we need as many energy sources as we can get. 

Have a wonderful energetic July 4th. 

See you all again on Monday.  

ETF Summary  

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)  

S&P 500 (SPY) 613 support after making new highs  

Russell 2000 (IWM) 215 pivotal 

Dow (DIA) 452 all time highs 

Nasdaq (QQQ) 548 support 

Regional banks (KRE) 55 support 60 resistance  

Semiconductors (SMH) 283 2024 high and now 270 support  

Transportation (IYT) 68 pivotal 

Biotechnology (IBB) 123 support 130 resistance 

Retail (XRT) 77 pivotal  

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 105k support 110 resistance