Silver: Shorts Unwind Further After Latest Spike

Indices: Small Breather as Government Shutdown Persists

• US equity index futures are up slightly undoing some of yesterday’s losses where it was lightest for the Nasdaq 100 (-0.15% to 25,098) compared to the S&P 500 (-0.3% to 6,735) and Dow 30 (-0.5% to 46,358) as government shutdown drags on with the Senate failing again to pass either funding bill
• Asia this morning in retreat including Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-1%) though still above 48K

Stocks: Nvidia Shines Again, While Ferrari Goes for a Downhill Race

• Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) climb 1.8%, closing above $192 enjoying a record high and boasting a market cap nearing $4.7tn though most other semiconductors suffered a red session; within the tech sphere decent gains for Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) shares closing 3% higher after Baird’s outperform rating and $365 price target.
• Tough session for shares of Ferrari plummeting 15.4% following its Capital Markets Day event where it reduced its 2030 EV target to 20% of its vehicle line-up from a previous 40% and disappointed on guidance
• Massive climb for Akero Therapeutics (+16.3%) after the announcement Novo Nordisk (-1.3%) will acquire it
• Meme stock movers: Kohl’s (-2.9%), GoPro (+6.8%), Opendoor (-4.1%)

Earnings:

• PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP): beats on both earnings and revenue though relies on global growth to offset declining volumes at home; shares up 4.2%
• Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL): beats on both earnings and revenue and offers decent guidance; shares closed 4.3% higher

Commodities: Potential Peace Hits Haven Appeal, Though no Denying Silver’s Spike

• Significant pullback for gold down 1.8% and back beneath $4K as agreement in the Middle East hurts its haven appeal and dollar climbs in the FX market, with silver breaching $51 before undoing most of yesterday’s gains, and taking the gold/silver ratio briefly below 80 for the first time in nearly a year
• Oil prices (WTI) fall back over 1% briefly breaking beneath $61 as agreement knocks some geopolitical risk premium out of its price

FX/Central Banks/Crypto: Mixed FOMC Tone, a Unanimous ECB, and Hawkish Talk From a Hawkish BoE Member

• Intraday ranges remain wide for Bitcoin attempting to remain above $121K after flirting with the $119K handle in a day where altcoins like Ethereum suffered more in percentage terms falling below a short-term support level
• US Dollar Index climbs into the 99s for the first time since early August and on track for its strongest week this year thanks to notable weakness in the euro (due to political woes in France) and yen (a pro-stimulus PM candidate in Japan)
• Federal Reserve’s Williams in favor of further rate cuts this year and doesn’t see the economy on the verge of a recession, Daly on the potentially “more worrisome” softening in the labor market but Barr cautions on rate reductions
• Minutes from the latest European Central Bank meeting show policymakers noting the bloc’s mixed economic performance and “risks surrounding the inflation outlook were identified on both sides” as they unanimously agreed to hold on rates
• Bank of England’s Mann that “monetary policy must remain restrictive for longer” amidst persistently high inflation
• Japan’s Kato won’t comment on FX levels but “seeing one-sided, rapid moves” and will “thoroughly monitor for excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements in the FX market”

Capital.com Client Sentiment: Small Pullback in Price Sees Gains in Long Sentiment Across the Board

• Indices: Near extreme buy territory in the S&P (76% from 72%) and Russell (77%) following the pullback in price with the Dow reaching it (extreme long 79%); elsewhere the notable drop in the Hang Seng sees long sentiment rise further (to 87%)
• Commodities: Reaches extreme buy territory in gold (80% from 73% yesterday) following the pullback in price and pushes further into it in silver (83% from 79%) and WTI (90% from 87%)
• FX: Reaches heavy buy territory in EUR/USD (65% from 62%) and GBP/USD (67% from 60%) as weakness against a strengthening greenback sees more shorts close out and longs initiate

Data: Little to Go On Thanks to DC Drama

• Ongoing dearth of US data due to the government shutdown
• German exports in August suffer a surprise 0.5% decline with imports down a larger 1.3% m/m
• Japanese producer prices in September up 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y both hotter than anticipated

Today:

• US UoM’s preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectations (6pm Dubai time), rig count data out of Baker Hughes (9pm), FOMC members speaking
• Canadian labor data (4:30pm)