Futures dip, oil tops $100 as Iran reviews U.S. peace plan - what’s moving markets
In yesterday’s analysis, I argued that silver might have decoupled from gold and miners. Today’s action doesn’t oppose it.
It doesn’t clearly confirm it, either, but overall, I’d say that what we see on the markets today supports the case that silver’s outlook is bullish even though gold and mining stocks are likely to decline.
Silver’s Bull Case Strengthens
It could be the case that when miners and gold decline significantly, silver drops to just its previous high or the rising, long-term support line at about $54.
Silver has at least 100 reasons to rally, and it’s after a major technical breakout that WAS confirmed.
Meanwhile, gold seems to be repeating its 2011-2012 pattern once again.
In 2012, the second move above the 61.8% was the final local top before the price moved much lower.
The Setup for Gold’s Decline
There’s a lot of uncertainty in the world, but gold had already soared profoundly, and no market can move up or down without periodic corrections (well, maybe except silver after major breakouts – like this one). And this time, the trigger for gold’s decline can come from rallying USD, which is – after all – poised to rally given the situation with tariffs. The latter are positive factor for the USD, and the USD declined after the announcements due to chaotic nature of the introduction. But the dust has pretty much settled and it’s time for the USD Index to rally back up.
The USDX is after several breakouts and an invalidation of the breakdown below the mid-year low. It’s now consolidating close to the previous local high.
We saw something like that in mid-2021, right before the dollar’s powerful upswing to ~115 (from ~93).
Such a move right now would have a devastating effect on gold, commodities (like copper) and cryptocurrencies. But would the same apply to silver? Given silver’s extremely favorable fundamental situation and physical exchange shortages, I have my doubts.
