Breaking News
Get 40% Off 0
Is NVDA a 🟢 buy or 🔴 sell? Unlock Now

Retail, Autos in Focus: What Do November Interim Sales Trends Indicate?

By Christine ShortStock MarketsNov 29, 2023 09:56AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/retail-autos-in-focus-what-do-november-interim-sales-trends-indicate-200643992
Retail, Autos in Focus: What Do November Interim Sales Trends Indicate?
By Christine Short   |  Nov 29, 2023 09:56AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
 
GM
+0.74%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
F
+0.25%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
ADBE
+2.95%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
COST
+0.48%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
WMT
+0.09%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
HMC
+0.20%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
  • A strong Q3 earnings season is in the books, and the focus turns to what near-term consumer shifts may be brewing.
  • Costco and The Buckle provide their usual monthly same-store sales reports this week
  • Global automakers also post production and sales figures over the coming days as the industry pushes forward following labor strike disruptions back in October

The Black Friday deals were plentiful. All told, sales for the day hit a new record of $9.8 billion, up 7.5% from a year ago, according to Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) Analytics. Retailers extended discounts to entice shoppers to buy early and often, and with five full weekends between Thanksgiving and Christmas, there’s reason for hope that the consumer will once again save the day.

Are there cracks just under the surface, though? Consider that Walmart’s CEO Doug McMillon warned that retail demand trends appeared to slow over the back half of October in the company’s Q3 report earlier this month. Still, as retail sales totals for last weekend tally up, there are mixed signals as the calendar now flips to December.

Interim Data in Focus

Interim company data can shed light on emerging themes before we read about them in quarterly earnings reports and conference call transcripts. There’s arguably no better time of the year to review what’s happening monthly with some of the nation’s most important consumer companies. Unfortunately, only a handful of big-name firms still report same-store sales. Let’s dig into those that have key numbers due out in the coming days. Insights gleaned from retailers and automakers can be critical to managing risk.

Costco November Sales on Tap

First, Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST) has vaulted itself to become the second-largest weighting in the Consumer Staples sector, as measured by the Consumer Staples Select Sector Fund (NYSE:XLP). Now worth more than Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Target (TGT), the discount club caters to a generally wealthier cohort, often comprised of growing families in America and, increasingly, around the world.'

Not only does the Washington-based retailer boast healthy sales growth from its stores, but reliable recurring revenue via its annual membership fee (and high retention rate, above 90%) make it an industry stalwart.5 Rumors persist that the annual fee, unchanged since 2017, will soon be on the rise. Richard Galanti, the firm’s CFO, said back in September that a membership cost increase was a “matter of when, not if.

COST Monthly Sales Growth Normalizing, Quarterly Results Two Weeks Away

Outside of earnings season, Costco’s monthly same-store sales reports often garner attention from the financial media, and there’s perhaps no more important bellwether update than its November interim sales report. Be on the lookout for results on the afternoon of Wednesday, November 29.7 It really is a treasure trove of data, including a breakout of sales among the U.S., Canada, and its Other International geographic segments.

Important for the holiday shopping period, E-commerce sales are also provided. The data is also adjusted to exclude fluctuations in gas prices and foreign exchange movements. The company reported 3.4% Total Company sales growth on an adjusted basis in its previous update with E-commerce sales 3.1% higher on a year-on-year basis for the four weeks ending October 29, 2023.8 Costco will report its full Q1 report on Thursday, December 14 AMC with a conference call later that evening. Lastly, its shareholders’ meeting takes place on January 18.

Apparel Sales Clues from The Buckle

It's not all about the big-box stores. One small apparel retailer, Buckle Inc (NYSE:BKE), issues its November comparable-store sales report a week before Costco’s Q1 2024 earnings results. While just a $1.9 billion market cap firm, this mall-based retailer might offer a first glimpse at clothing and accessories demand for the first handful of weeks of the holiday season. Expectations should be tempered, however, considering that The Buckle posted an 11.1% YoY decrease in net sales for the four weeks ended October 28, 2023, with a pronounced decline in women’s clothing revenue.

Automakers Hope to Move On from Labor Disputes in October

Away from day-to-day purchases, investors will get a slew of monthly vehicle production and sales reports to chew through starting on Thursday, November 30. That is when Toyota (NYSE:TM), Honda (NYSE:HMC), Mazda (MZDAY (OTC:MZDAY)), and Subaru (OTC:FUJHY) release monthly numbers.

Ford’s (F) figures come the following Monday. Before then, be on the lookout for potential volatility from General Motors (NYSE:GM) when it hosts a business update conference call on Wednesday morning this week. Ford (NYSE:F) and GM also have speaking dates at the Barclays Global Automotive and Mobility Tech Conference 2023 on Wednesday and Thursday this week.

Amid all that, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares could be on the move as its management team is slated to present at the Macquarie International Equity Conference 2023 from November 29 to the 30th in Australia. Following an uncertain stretch for the domestic big 3 automakers during October’s labor negotiations, shifting gears back toward regular production activities is likely healthy for the industry. We will also soon find out how confident consumers were in November through these interim sales tallies.

The Bottom Line

There are signs of softening retail demand. Along with cautious commentary from Walmart’s CEO, the October Retail Sales report cooled off significantly from a hot streak from July through September.10 With the holidays in full swing, investors should keep up with near-term sales trends from important US and global retailers and auto manufacturers.

Retail, Autos in Focus: What Do November Interim Sales Trends Indicate?
 

Related Articles

Retail, Autos in Focus: What Do November Interim Sales Trends Indicate?

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.
  • Any comment you publish, together with your investing.com profile, will be public on investing.com and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (4)
Muhamadadnan Muhmadadhnan
Muhamadadnan Muhmadadhnan Dec 26, 2023 10:18AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Hli
Frank Brannvoll Brannvoll ApS
FrankB Dec 12, 2023 9:58AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Well they are now facing the power of the Nordic and later EU unions - so they will have to change a lot or see production nd sale slump to 0 . Its not US im sorry to say .
Om Marwa Marwa
Om Marwa Marwa Dec 05, 2023 11:59AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
محمد الحسن
محمد الحسن Dec 01, 2023 3:45PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email