Oil prices reverse early losses as Iran supply fears overshadow Russia measures
Crude oil prices have had a dramatic reversal after President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Israel are making significant progress in the war on Iran and could end the conflict “very soon.” Clearly, the key to getting crude oil prices to subside is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s missile and drone facilities are destroyed.
The perception is that since the Ayatollah’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named the new Supreme Leader, it means that hardliners in Iran remain in charge, and no surrender is anticipated. However, Mojtaba Khamenei has spent a lot of time in London due to medical issues, so he may not be as hardline as some perceive.
BlackRock has limited withdrawals from one of its flagship private credit funds after a surge of redemption requests. Specifically, the $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund received $1.2 billion in withdrawal requests in the first quarter and will allow $620 million in redemptions, which represents 5% of the fund. As the panic in private credit spreads, it will drag the Fed into fixing this mess with further key interest rate cuts, since a private credit meltdown will impede leading and curtail economic growth.
The good news is that Nvidia (NVDA) will be hosting a GPU Tech Conference next week that is expected to provide insight into its next-generation chip architecture and helped semiconductor and memory stocks rally this week. Additionally, this conference is also expected to highlight optical connections, which should bode well for Corning (GPW) and Ubiquiti (UI).
Bloomberg has been reporting that Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a market meltdown to 35% for the rest of the year, up from 20% previously. Yardeni also slashed the odds of a meltup, namely a rally driven more by investor enthusiasm than underlying fundamentals, to just 5% from 20%. Specifically, Yardeni said, “If the oil shock persists, the Fed’s dual mandate would be stuck between the increasing risk of higher inflation and rising unemployment.” Obviously, I highly respect Ed Yardeni and believe he is stating the obvious. The good news is Ed Yardeni has assigned an 85% chance of a continuation of the Roaring 2020s.