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Opening Bell: U.S. Futures Slump On European Vaccine Turmoil; Dollar Wobbles

By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)Market OverviewMar 16, 2021 08:35AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/opening-bell-us-futures-slump-on-european-vaccine-turmoil-dollar-wobbles-200567505
Opening Bell: U.S. Futures Slump On European Vaccine Turmoil; Dollar Wobbles
By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)   |  Mar 16, 2021 08:35AM ET
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  • Vaccine crisis spreads in Europe
  • Travel shares wipe out lockdown losses
  • Oil retreats for a third day

Key Events

Futures on the NASDAQ were the only US contracts in the green ahead of the US session on Tuesday as traders expect the technology sector to continue its rebound. Futures on the Dow, S&P and Russell 2000 were all forecasting a lower open each of the three underlying indices posted record highs on Monday on US stimulus spending optimism.

The dollar, which had rallied for three days, is slightly lower this morning.

Global Financial Affairs

The NASDAQ was the only benchmark that failed to post a new record yesterday, closing 6% below its Feb.16 all-time high. It appears that the US reflation trade is taking a breather, and maybe investors have decided to take profits on the news that the vaccine rollout in Europe has hit a snag.

European countries, including Sweden, Germany France and Italy have halted AstraZeneca (LON:AZN) inoculations on reports of blood clots in some recipients. They are awaiting a decision on Thursday from the European Medicines Agency, which is currently reviewing the new vaccine data, as to whether they can restart the vaccination process. The move is exacerbating the already slow pace of the rollout across Europe.

Nevertheless, regional equities advanced on upbeat earnings forecasts from German online fashion retailer Zalando (DE:ZALG) and automaker Volkswagen (DE:VOWG). The STOXX 600 Index climbed toward its record high, set before the pandemic.

What is noteworthy is that the travel and leisure sector—one of the hardest hit market segments during coronavirus lockdowns—was in the green, despite the vaccine turmoil in Europe. It appears that the overall optimism has spilled over into this sector as investors are so behind the reflation trade they are willing to turn a blind eye to what appears to be a real impediment to economic recovery.

Earlier, Asian indices were in the green across the board, having caught the headwinds from yesterday's US markets.

Shares listed on the four main US benchmarks, the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and Russell 2000, gained, posting solid green candles, although the Russell 2000 closed at the very highest point of the session. Still, there is cause for caution.

Russell 2000 Daily
Russell 2000 Daily

The Russell is the only gauge that developed a hanging man, and if futures on the small cap index—amid what could turn into a vaccine crisis in Europe—are any indication, we could see a close below Monday’s opening price, confirming the pattern’s bearish signal.

It just so happened that yields on the 10-year Treasury note—which we have repeatedly demonstrated are correlated with small caps as a manifestation of reopening economies after coronavirus lockdowns—fell for the second day.

10-year Treasuries Daily
10-year Treasuries Daily

Rates are struggling to remain above an ascending channel. If successful, it would indicate a continued rise.

The dollar was higher for the third day, climbing back above the neckline of a double top, which followed a falling wedge since the March top.

Dollar Index Daily
Dollar Index Daily

Note, however, that the price has been stuck at precisely the same level, 91.96, for the third day.

Bottoming MACD and ROC suggest a gold rebound from the bottom to the top of its channel.

Gold Daily
Gold Daily

However, because the yellow metal's channel is falling, it could always turn around and keep falling.

Bitcoin has recovered from the drop to $53,380. It's now nearing $55,900, forming a hammer.

Bitcoin Daily
Bitcoin Daily

However, there is still room for a take-profit correction, within its rising channel.

Oil retreated for the third day as the “Iranian oil surge to China hurts OPEC efforts to tighten supply.”

Oil Daily
Oil Daily

Technically, oil might be forming a bullish pennant.

Up Ahead

  • Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell it expected to reaffirm his steady policy stance at the FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday.
  • On Thursday the Bank of England is expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged.
  • Bank of Japan monetary policy decision and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda briefing will take place on Friday.

Market Moves

Stocks

Currencies

  • The Dollar Index advanced 0.1% to 91.90.
  • The euro was little changed at $1.1925.
  • The British pound sank 0.5% to $1.3836.
  • The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.5 per dollar.
  • The Japanese yen weakened 0.1% to 109.22 per dollar.

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 1.60%.
  • The yield on two-year Treasuries was unchanged at 0.15%.
  • Germany’s 10-year yield was unchanged at -0.33%.
  • Britain’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 0.798%.
  • Japan’s 10-year yield sank one basis point to 0.105%.

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $64.89 a barrel.
  • Brent crude fell 0.8% to $68.36 a barrel.
  • Gold was little changed at $1,732.05 an ounce.
Opening Bell: U.S. Futures Slump On European Vaccine Turmoil; Dollar Wobbles
 

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Opening Bell: U.S. Futures Slump On European Vaccine Turmoil; Dollar Wobbles

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Comments (8)
DrFunkenstein hayson
DrFunkenstein hayson Mar 16, 2021 8:41AM ET
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hmmm rushed out vaccines without knowing the long term data side effects or hazards for a virus with a 99.7% survival rate.gates globalists and bankers laughing all the way to the bank
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Mar 16, 2021 8:41AM ET
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Was Trump a globalist? He promoted the vaccine.
DrFunkenstein hayson
DrFunkenstein hayson Mar 16, 2021 8:39AM ET
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vaccine turmoil , what a crock...
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Mar 16, 2021 8:39AM ET
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You must be an expert on crocks.
Matius Marvn
Matius Marvn Mar 16, 2021 8:38AM ET
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fake news again , tomorrow powelll will hunt more bear as all last conference and friday is expiration of futures , broker destroyed all shorts
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Mar 16, 2021 8:38AM ET
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How do you know it's fake news?
Todd Gray
Todd Gray Mar 16, 2021 8:38AM ET
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maybe.
Todd Gray
Todd Gray Mar 16, 2021 8:38AM ET
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the people are overwhelmed with fake news. for instance, have you ever heard the media, or their guest, state where 98 to 99% of global warming, not caused my man, comes from? no! the answer is the 24k year annual nod to the sun. aka, the Milankovitch cycle! the north pole is simply 7 deg. closer to the sun than 12k years ago. that makes a big difference.covid is overhyped by at least one order of magnitude. have you ever heard the media, or their guest, say the 4 year pre-covid daily death rate for the top 8 underlying conditions was higher than, if memory serves. any daily death rate for covid?the reason we don't believe modern academia is your goal is profit, and your method is dissonance. are you unaware of how contradictory you all are? can you not read or hear the headlines alone and see the dissonance, omission, promise without consideration, and hype?
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Mar 16, 2021 8:38AM ET
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Todd Gray  "You all are"? Todd you need a chill pilll. You're scaring me.
Luqman Firdaus
Luqman Firdaus Mar 16, 2021 8:09AM ET
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money $ 90.000.000
Milos Duric
Milos Duric Mar 16, 2021 8:07AM ET
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Can somebody explain to the authour of this text what the word “slump” means in englishThank you
giorgiana stefan
giorgiana stefan Mar 16, 2021 8:04AM ET
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"However, because the yellow metal's price is falling, it could always turn around and keep falling." Amazing TA
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Mar 16, 2021 8:04AM ET
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You're right. Written incorrectly. The reference was the channel is falling, not the price. Thanks for the comments.
Vincenzo Dellboy
Vincenzo Dellboy Mar 16, 2021 8:04AM ET
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Slump lol
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Mar 16, 2021 8:04AM ET
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Prices change.
Joao Abo-gaux
Joao Abo-gaux Mar 16, 2021 8:02AM ET
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??? Futures are higher, is this a bot?
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Mar 16, 2021 8:02AM ET
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You are aware that prices change with time, yes? You're commenting now, while this was pubished an hour ago, and I wrote it 2.5 hours ago.
Iván Fernández Perea
Iván Fernández Perea Mar 16, 2021 8:02AM ET
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futures didnt slump today, no matter what time you wrote it. stop scaring people!
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Mar 16, 2021 8:02AM ET
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Iván Fernández Perea  They were 0.3% in the red. About being scared, speak for yourself, or were you elected to represented "people."
Iván Fernández Perea
Iván Fernández Perea Mar 16, 2021 8:02AM ET
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Pinchas Cohen 0'3% isnt slump, just that simple.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Mar 16, 2021 8:02AM ET
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Iván Fernández Perea  You're right. The articles undergo editing, whose job is to keep the language simple and interesting in the same time. So, they use synonyms.
 
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