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Oil Market Shrugs Off OPEC+ Output Increase Amid Strong Demand

ByMichele Schneider
Published 07/08/2025, 03:19 AM
CL2.50%
BLK0.54%
USO-1.00%

Last week, I covered solar energy.  

I still say that all energy hands will be needed on deck to support the demands of AI, not to mention the power grid in the US and globally. 

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) put out their predictions for the second half of 2025. 

2 predictions stood out to me 

  1. Utilities rising 
  2. Energy demands for AI rising 

While I do not believe it takes a genius to figure that out, I do, nonetheless, like when I am aligned with a company like BlackRock. 

Today, we go back to talking about crude oil. Crude Oil Price Chart

We learned that OPEC+ decided to raise its output target by 548,000 barrels a day.  

Yet, once again, the oil market shrugged off the bearish news. 

As I always say, “Price dictates the narrative.” What is the narrative with oil just under $68 (the resistance to clear)? 

Goldman Sachs put out a prediction that oil will drop to $60. However, we already know that shale producers will face tighter margins with lower prices. 

We also know that supply and demand rules in commodities trading.  

Right now, the market is saying that despite rising supply, the demand still outweighs it. 

Will this last?  

USO Daily Chart

Should oil hold over $68, not only does that clear recent resistance, but it also shows that the bullish momentum on real motion means that the price could work itself higher. 

On the chart of USO, the January calendar range (soon to reset in July), clears and it is possible that we see $85 again. 

The last time oil set up, it was before the Israel and Iran crisis. 

This time there is news that Houthi attacks on commercial shipping resume, stoking fresh geopolitical risk. 

Therefore, remember that analysts crunch the numbers and do not account for the price charts. 

ETF Summary  

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)  

S&P 500 (SPY) 613 support  

Russell 2000 (IWM) 215 pivotal 

Dow (DIA) 440 support 

Nasdaq (QQQ) 548 support 

Regional banks (KRE) 60 pivotal support  

Semiconductors (SMH) 270 support  

Transportation (IYT) 68 pivotal 

Biotechnology (IBB) 123 support 130 resistance 

Retail (XRT) 77 support 80 must hold for best bullish case 

{{0|Bitcoin} (BTCUSD) 105k support 110 resistance 

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