Iran conflict latest: Trump says Iranian negotiators "begging" for peace deal
Government shutdown at midnight appears likely, but no one is panicking.
Dip buyers are disappointed that the government shutdown isn’t presenting an opportunity. At least so far. After the first hour of trading, the major stock indexes are only down slightly. The US Treasury yield curve is reacting a bit more, moving 2-3bps lower. The Street seems most concerned that government economic data may not be reported until the standoff is resolved.
It appears that the pivotal topic of disagreement is providing healthcare to illegal immigrants. Given this is a hot button for Trump, the standoff could evolve into an extended period of brinkmanship. History says these shutdowns have little impact on the economy or earnings, but with the success of dip buyers this year, a major correction seems unlikely.
Despite the softness today, tech is actually in the green, on the back of semiconductors, once again, up 1.1%, led once again by NVIDIA up 2.6% now at a new all-time high approaching a $4.5T market cap. The AI narrative had another big agreement announced: CoreWeave (CRWV) announced a $14B deal with Meta. The shares jumped 15% on the news (though still 23% below the May ’25 high). If AI is a bubble, it’s still growing.
This morning, we got a few economic data points. The Chicago PMI for September, expected to grow, came in down at 40.6. It hasn’t seen growth, above 50, in 3 years (outside of a single outlier in Nov’23). The Conference Board consumer confidence for September fell more than expected, to 94.2. It hasn’t seen a number above 100 since Jan’25. The JOLTS job opening data was higher than forecast at 7.22M, higher than last month’s 7.18M, and indicates a more stable employment market than feared, albeit we’re seeing the lowest JOLTS levels since ’21.
The bond market has new confidence in further Fed cuts. Bets on an October cut have risen to essentially 100%, and a 2nd cut in December to 76%. This is important as history says that rate cuts with inflation still meaningfully positive and no recession have been very positive for stocks in the months that follow. Though it’s never happened with stocks already at all-time highs.
On the commodity front, gold is flat, silver and copper are lower modestly. Crude oil continues to slide, almost reaching $62/bbl on expectations of OPEC+ volume increases. Natural gas is flat. Energy is the weakest sector today -1.6%. The US dollar index is flat at 97.5. Crypto is modestly in the red with Bitcoin at $113.2K
There will no doubt be at least modest volatility as we enter the government shutdown. Currently, expectations are that it’s likely to be resolved by the time the earnings season kicks off with JP Morgan on October 14th. Two weeks later, we will get the next Fed cut. October will be volatile, but November and December should show some real strength. The trend remains positive.