Investing.com’s stocks of the week
Traders will enjoy a shortened week ahead of the Christmas holiday, with markets closed on Thursday and operating on abbreviated hours on Wednesday. Stock markets will shut at 1 p.m. EST and bond markets at 2 p.m. EST that day. Despite the lighter schedule, investors will still be watching several key economic reports, including an initial reading on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).
Instead of the typical year-end rally, US stock investors are contending with renewed turbulence that threatens to keep markets volatile through the end of December. Major indexes are still on course for solid gains in 2025, but the S&P 500 has dipped this month, breaking from its historically strong December trend.
The recent choppiness largely reflects two forces: increasing questions over massive corporate investment in AI infrastructure and shifting expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026.
Last week, concerns over an Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) data-center project pressured tech and other AI-related shares, while Thursday’s benign inflation data helped give the broader market a boost.
Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures edged higher Sunday night, with Dow futures up 0.1% over fair value, S&P 500 futures gaining 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield inched up to 4.17%. In commodities, spot gold reached a new record high, while futures for silver, platinum, and particularly palladium also advanced.
GDP, Consumer Confidence in Focus During Holiday-Shortened Trading Week
Economic Calendar
Monday, Dec. 22
No major reports scheduled.
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Gross Domestic Product (Q3), initial estimate
Additional key data: October durable goods orders; November industrial production and capacity utilization; December consumer confidence.
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Initial jobless claims (week ended Dec. 20)
Market hours: U.S. stock markets close at 1 p.m. EST; bond markets close at 2 p.m. EST.
Thursday, Dec. 25
Stock and bond markets closed for Christmas.
Friday, Dec. 26
No major reports scheduled.
A trio of reports postponed by the government shutdown is scheduled for release this week, headlined by the initial estimate of third-quarter GDP.
Originally slated for Oct. 30, the delayed GDP report means the Bureau of Economic Analysis will issue only two third-quarter estimates, a preliminary and a final—rather than the usual three. Following Tuesday’s release, which comes after second-quarter growth rebounded to 3.8% from a 0.6% first-quarter decline driven by tariff-related import gains, the final third-quarter GDP report is set for Jan. 22.
The October durable goods orders report, originally slated for release in November, is now scheduled for Tuesday. Also, due that day are delayed Federal Reserve reports on industrial production and capacity utilization for both October and November.
December’s consumer confidence survey will be released on Tuesday as planned. Weekly jobless claims, due Wednesday, will also draw attention after last week’s employment report showed an uptick in November unemployment.
S&P 500: Outlook for Fourth-Quarter Earnings
As the third-quarter earnings season recedes, several indicators are bolstering confidence about fourth-quarter results. Analysts’ net earnings revisions for S&P 500 companies stayed positive for a fifth consecutive month in December, according to Yardeni Research’s Net Earnings Revisions Index. Revisions had turned positive in August for the first time in 11 months.
The index eased to 4.5% in December from a 47‑month high of 5.9% in October, after rebounding from a 28‑month low in May. The advance since May marks the strongest seven‑month gain since March 2021. In December, seven of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors reported positive revisions for the fourth month in a row.
Santa Claus rally: What Does it Mean, and Is it Likely to Happen This Year?
With the new year approaching, investors are watching Wall Street to see if a Santa Claus rally materializes. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 1.3% during this period, defined as the last five trading days of the year and the first two of January, a window that begins Wednesday and runs through Jan. 5.
Technical Analysis:
DJIA Index
- The DJIA remains in an upward channel that began at the August 2025 lows.
- After a bear-trap move in mid to late November, the index has moved back inside this channel.
- In the near term, the DJIA is expected to trade between 48,600 and 47,530.
- A decisive break above or below this range would likely set the short-term trend.
DJIA Daily Candlestick Chart
Nasdaq 100 Index
- The NDX has broken below its ascending channel, which now acts as firm resistance around 25,850–25,950.
- If rallies are capped below this zone, a pullback toward 24,650, and potentially 24,200, remains in play.
- A sustained break above 25,810–25,850 would invalidate the bearish outlook.
NDX Daily Candlestick Chart
SPX Index
- SPX rejected the lower boundary of the rising channel it broke below in mid-November.
- As long as the index stays beneath the all-time high at 6,920, a decline toward 6,740–6,720 remains likely.
- A decisive move above 6,920 would invalidate the downside scenario and open the door to fresh record highs into year-end.
SPX Daily Candlestick Chart
Weekly US Indices Probability Map:
- The U.S. weekly market probability map for Dec. 22–26 signals an elevated likelihood of a Santa Claus rally.
- These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
- The sentiment readings are driven by a seasonality-based scoring system.
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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.
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