Markets Week Ahead: Bulls Eye Early 2026 Momentum After a Weak Finish to 2025

Key Highlights:

• Gold and silver climbed as investors flocked to safe-haven metals amid rising geopolitical tensions following the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
• The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is fueling doubts over how quickly the country can boost oil output, with analysts questioning whether major oil companies will commit new investment amid ongoing uncertainty.
• Crude oil prices swung as traders assessed the impact of the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on global crude supply and the country’s energy sector. Brent initially fell as much as 1.2% before recovering to trade near $61 a barrel, while WTI held above $57. Despite the turmoil, Venezuela remains a minor supplier in a market already facing a growing glut.
• U.S. airlines are restoring Caribbean service after a U.S. military incursion in Venezuela led to regional airspace closures that stranded thousands. Carriers, including American and Delta, added extra flights and larger jets, with American alone providing nearly 5,000 additional seats.
• Jobs data tops the economic calendar in the days ahead, with the January 9 report poised to move markets. Labor-market weakness pushed the Fed to cut rates at its last three 2025 meetings, aiding equities, but the scope for further easing in 2026 remains uncertain.
• S&P 500 slips into year-end but still locks in a 16% gain for 2025. A packed January now looms with Q4 earnings and key inflation data on deck.

Dow Jones futures dipped slightly Sunday night, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures inched higher. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump declared that the US is “going to run” Venezuela following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, though his regime remains in place.

The annual CES tech conference officially kicks off in Las Vegas on Tuesday, with artificial intelligence set to dominate the agenda. CES 2026 will feature key presentations from AI chip leaders Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and highlight the “physical” side of AI across devices—from smart glasses and wearable life-loggers to robotaxis and humanoid robots.

Industrial tech will also be in focus, with keynote addresses from the CEOs of Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Siemens (SIEGY). The four-day event runs through Friday.

Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) will be in focus with CES2026 in Las Vegas.

$NVDA – Jensen Huang keynote: 1/5, 4:00 PM ET

$AMD – Lisa Su keynote: 1/5, 9:30 PM ET

$MRVL – Matt Murphy fireside chat: 1/6, 12:00 PM ET

$TSM – Monthly sales data: 1/9.

Stocks fell in the final session of 2025, leaving the S&P 500 with a December loss, though the index still rose more than 16% for the year—its third straight double-digit gain—as the VIX hovered near year lows.

Thin year-end trading could give way to a busy start to 2026, with key economic data, a Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs, his pick for the next Fed chair, and the kickoff of earnings season all on deck. The earnings calendar is light in the coming week, but a few names are reporting, including AAR (NYSE:AIR), Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC), and Acuity (NYSE:AYI).

US Economic Data

A wave of economic data is set to hit during the market’s first full week of January. On deck are ISM manufacturing and services indexes, Commerce Department figures on housing starts and building permits, and the Labor Department’s JOLTS report. The main event, however, will be Friday’s December payrolls release.

On Dec. 30, the Chicago Fed said its labor market model showed a slight change in layoffs, quits, and hiring of the unemployed for the month, and it projected the unemployment rate held at 4.56%.

Tech boom and onshoring set to ignite a new capital spending surge.

Most of the outlay is expected from the “Big Four” building huge AI data centers—Microsoft, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (Google), and Meta (NASDAQ:META)—all of which have signaled that their 2026 capex will likely exceed 2025 levels.

The “Magnificent 7” — Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) — are expected to spend over $500 billion on capex in 2026. While not formally committed to that figure, their late-2025 guidance to Wall Street points to an acceleration of heavy AI infrastructure investment next year.

Onshoring is another key driver of capital spending, as Trump’s tariff team has secured pledges from foreign governments and firms to build manufacturing plants in the U.S. in exchange for lower tariff rates.

Technical Analysis:

DJIA Index

• The DJIA remains in an uptrend channel that started from the August 2025 lows.
• The index failed to break above the channel’s midpoint on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025.
• The lower boundary of the channel offers support, near 47,900.
• A break above or below 47,900 would set the next direction.

DJIA Daily Candlestick Chart

Nasdaq 100 Index

• The NDX is still capped by resistance in the 25,870–25,900 zone.
• While that ceiling holds, trading is likely to stay range-bound between 25,900 and 24,645.
• A decisive break below the 25,000 level would open the door to a move down toward 24,645.

NDX Daily Candlestick Chart

SPX Index

• SPX broke below the 6,896-resistance area last week.
• While below that level, a move down toward 6,820 looks likely.
• A sustained, decisive break under 6,820 would point to further downside toward 6,740–6,720.
• Otherwise, SPX is likely to chop in a 6,890–6,820 range.

SPX Daily Candlestick Chart

Weekly US Indices Probability Map:

• The U.S. weekly market probability map for Jan 05 - 09, 2026 suggests aweek full of mixed trading pattern.
• These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
• The sentiment readings are driven by a seasonality-based scoring system.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.

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