Market Overview

This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions disappointed expectations, posting a contractionaly reading of 2.21, down from...

VIX has finally completed its Primary Wave [5] which may have been truncated.This happens more often than one would suppose. The Cycles Model suggests that the decline is finished. Perhaps we may see...

Ongoing QE-Tailwind For Stocks Using simple principles of human nature, we can conclude the Fed, and central banks around the world, will continue to print money longer than most market participants...

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.1, up from last week's 131.4 (revised from 131.0). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal...

What's New: I've updated the charts below through today's close. The yield on the 10-year note finished the week at 2.71%, which is 128 bps above its 1.43% all-time closing low on July 25th of last...

One more trading week is coming to an end, and nothing has changed in the world economy, but the American and German stock markets continue to update historical maximum levels. At the same time, all...

Currencies The euro (EUR) remains around 1.3453 against the US dollar forming a symmetrical triangle formation. The pair remained well within range as Janet Yellen, the Fed chairman to replace Ben...

US equities were boosted to another record high after Fed chairman nominee Yellen warned of withdrawing stimulus. DOW rose 54.59 pts to close at 15876.22 while S&P 500 rose 8.62 pts to close at...

We continue to have a positive USD view for 2014. Relative monetary policy with the ECB on easing bias and tapering from the Fed should continue to push the EUR/USD lower. We now forecast that the...

The euro area's manufacturing PMIs are expected to be broadly unchanged in November, but still consistent with a slight improvement in growth. In the US minutes from the October Fed meeting could...

Central banks are on diverging paths these days. In the US the strong payroll report put Fed tapering back on the agenda. Average job growth in the past three months is now 201k, which is broadly...

The final euro inflation figure will be interesting after the flash estimate dropped to 0.7% and the ECB cut the refi rate. The final German and Spanish figures were revised downward, but we estimate...

Janet Yellen had an easy time at her confirmation hearing to be chair of the Federal Reserve. The questioning had a perfunctory tone, suggesting that she had satisfactorily answered the tough...

The nominee for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, has told the Senate Banking Committee in Washington that it is important that the Fed doesn't withdrawal stimulus too soon. She...