JNJ Earnings Preview: Solid Q4 Expected With Revenue Growth Above 5% in Sight

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) shares surged 43% in 2025, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 16% gain and delivering the company’s strongest annual performance since 1995. Analysts expect fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.42 per share on sales of $24.1 billion, while the company’s multiple myeloma portfolio, led by Darzalex and Tecvayli, is projected to generate as much as $25 billion in revenue by 2030.

Wall Street analysts believe the company is well-positioned to sustain revenue growth above 5%, supported by mid-single-digit expansion in Innovative Medicines through 2030 and a MedTech division that is increasingly focused on higher-growth segments. They also note that this outlook is further reinforced by accelerating Tremfya sales following its approval in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

Key Highlights:

• At the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference last week, CEO Joaquin Duato highlighted Johnson & Johnson’s growing multiple myeloma franchise—anchored by Darzalex and Tecvayli—which he said could generate about $25 billion in revenue by 2030, potentially a conservative estimate, citing what he called some of the most impressive multiple myeloma data to date from a Tecvayli–Darzalex combination.
• The company’s MedTech segment is also expanding, with worldwide operational sales up 5.6% year over year in the third quarter, driven by strength in electrophysiology and wound closure products, as well as contributions from acquired businesses Abiomed and Shockwave.
• Other products such as Xarelto and Simponi/Simponi Aria likely continued to grow, while rapid uptake of newer drugs—including Carvykti, Tecvayli, Talvey, Rybrevant, Lazcluze, Caplyta, and Spravato—also supported top-line gains. However, Stelara sales likely declined amid a wave of U.S. biosimilar launches in 2025 by Amgen, Teva, Samsung Bioepis/Sandoz, and others, with the loss of exclusivity reducing Innovative Medicines growth by 1,070 basis points in the third quarter and likely exerting an even greater drag in the fourth quarter as competition intensified.
• In a significant win for thousands of women suing Johnson & Johnson over claims that its talc-based baby powder caused ovarian cancer, court-appointed special master and retired U.S. District Judge Freda Wolfson recommended Tuesday that plaintiffs be allowed to present expert testimony supporting a causal link. The recommendation, affecting more than 67,500 federal cases consolidated in New Jersey, clears the way for the litigation to move toward a first federal trial potentially later this year, a key step in product liability suits where expert evidence often proves decisive.

Analysts Expectation:

• A Bernstein SocGen analyst reiterated a “market perform” rating on J&J and raised the price target to $208 from $193.
• Stifel raised its price target on Johnson & Johnson to $205 from $190 while maintaining a Hold rating, following the company’s $3.05 billion acquisition of oncology-focused Halda Therapeutics on Dec. 29. Stifel expects the deal to be dilutive to adjusted EPS by a total of $0.20, split evenly between 2025 and 2026 ($0.10 per year).

JNJ Q4 2025 earnings before market (6:20 am ET) Wednesday, Jan 21, 2026

Technical Analysis Perspective:

• Johnson & Johnson has staged a major rally after breaking out above the broad 174–142 consolidation range that persisted from March 2023 to August 2025.
• The stock has gained 28% ($48.30) over the past 22 weeks.
• JNJ is advancing within a classic rising channel, repeatedly testing both its upper and lower bounds.
• Base case: A move up to 224–225 after earnings, followed by a gradual corrective pullback toward 206–205.
• Alternate case: Post-earnings drop to 206–205 first, then a subsequent advance to 224–225.
• A decisive break above or below the channel will likely define the next major directional move.

Weekly Candlestick Chart

JNJ Seasonality Chart:

Since 2007, JNJ has ended January lower 55% of the time with an average decline of 0.1%, and February lower 53% of the time with an average decline of 0.2%.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

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