Iran rejects U.S. war proposal, says no talks before conditions met
Gold, silver, and mining stocks are not doing much, but at the same time, today’s session is very meaningful.
This is the case because of how the precious metals sector is moving lower today, because of what the USD Index is doing, and given how it all fits gold’s big picture. In short, my gold price forecast for November 2025 remains up-to-date.
Gold, silver, and miners moved lower today, and miners are leading the way. Taking a closer look at the most recent upswing reveals that miners were the first to move higher, and silver caught up. This is typical for movement in the precious metals sector, and since silver has already caught up, it seems that the declines can now continue.
USD Index Rises as Sentiment Turns
The USD Index is moving higher slowly but surely. It started to move higher after the Fed cut rates – just like it did in September. Back then, it rallied for a few weeks, so it looks like this short-term upswing has only begun.
But… That’s not even the point. The point is that the USD Index declined severely since April while it should have moved higher given the tariff announcements and then their implementation. Instead, the sentiment kept worsening until it moved to the extreme. Remember my Peak Chaos theory? That the markets already discounted the max amount of chaos and that now they are going to reverse? I wrote about that too early with regard to the precious metals market, but it worked like a charm for the USD Index.
Anyway, just like I wrote yesterday – when the rally in the USD Index finally becomes obvious to everyone, the PMs can truly slide. And given that we’re about to see a clear monthly gain in the USD Index.
From the long-term point of view, it means that the tiny breakdown below the rising red support line was invalidated and that the move below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the 2008 – 2022 rally was also invalidated.
In other words, the USD’s short-term rally is most likely just a small beginning of a huge upswing.
It seems that taking profits from the long-term investments and from half of the insurance capital (in gold and silver) when gold was at about $4,150 and silver was above $50 was a great idea.
When the USD Index finally confirms its breakout above 100, things will get really interesting, and many USD bears will be extremely surprised by the outcome.
History May Repeat 2011
Speaking of monthly performance, we’re only several hours before the end of the month and we can see that in all likelihood we’re going to see a powerful monthly (!) reversal in gold in the target area that I had featured on Oct. 16.
Quoting my Oct. 16 Gold Trading Alert:
On the above chart, we see that gold moved to – and even a bit above – its 1.382 Fibonacci extension based on the 1999 – 2011 bull market.
It’s also at – actually a bit above – the upper border of its very long-term, rising trend channel. All this while being extremely overbought. And while the USD Index is just waiting to soar.
All this creates a situation in which all those recent big gains can be reversed shortly and followed by even bigger and more volatile declines.
Remember – we saw something similar in 2011 and back then silver erased two months of gains in one week.
Gold is now “just” $200 lower than it was when I had written the above and given the monthly reversal that is about to form, the really big declines are just ahead. This would perfectly fit the scenario in which the USD Index rallies profoundly.
Summing up, gold had a magnificent run-up and so did silver, however, it seems that this rally is over. Fortunately, this creates unique opportunities.
