What Should We Expect From The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls?
A huge day for trading, keep your eye on the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow! The US Jobs Report will be published at 12:30 p.m. (GMT).
Why Is This Important?
The Nonfarm Payrolls track the change in the number of people employed by the U.S. in manufacturing, construction and goods companies. It does not include farming industry employment. The U.S. Jobs Report is so important for the upcoming Fed decisions.
Last Wednesday, Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected The central bank signaled it will pause to assess the economy before acting again.
The Fed has cut rates largely to protect the economy from a damaging trade war with China that's curbed the U.S. and global growth. The U.S. economy, however, is still "rising at a moderate rate," the Fed noted.
In addition to the Fed Rate Decision, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Number printed at 125k last Wednesday, which is above the 120K reading expected.
In tomorrow's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, the market expects to see 90K jobs created after rising 136K the previous month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5%. Average hourly earnings will also be significant and are expected to be 0.3%, lower than the previous month's number of 0.4% An upbeat employment report will point to an improving US economy and support the greenback.
Moreover, we will also focus on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI tomorrow. The data for October is expected to rise to 48.9 from 47.8 in the previous month.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD: The EURUSD pair jumped up and hit the 1.1165 daily resistance level. In order for the upward movement to gain more power, it needs to break out and stay above 1.1165 on a daily basis. Should this occur, we will see 1.1237 as the next resistance level. Otherwise, we will follow the support levels at 1.1114 and 1.1052
Support : 1.1114 - 1.1052 - 1.0007
Resistance : 1.1165 - 1.1237 - 1.1307
GBP/USD: Focus the 1.2947 main resistance level. In order for the rise to gain more momentum, it needs to break out and stay above 1.2947 on a four hourly basis. At this point, the next resistance level will be at 1.3046. Otherwise, the key support level will be found at 1.2838 again.
Support: 1.2838 - 1.2768 - 1.2671
Resistance: 1.2947 - 1.3046 - 1.3136
USD/JPY: The USDJPY pair dropped to the key support level of 108.14. However, as long as the price stays above 108.14, on a four hourly basis, the fall may be limited and we will follow 108.52 as a major resistance level again. On the other hand, if the price drops below 108.14, the next support level can be seen at 107.82.
Support : 108.14 - 107.82 - 107.52
Resistance : 108.52 - 108.79 - 109.09
GOLD: The Gold Price showed an upward movement after the FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting. We will closely watch the main level of 1509. In order for the rise to gain more momentum, it needs to stay above 1509 on a four hourly basis. In this case, the next daily resistance level can be seen at 1524. Otherwise, the key support level can be seen at 1492 again.
Support: 1492 - 1478 - 1466
Resistance: 1509 - 1524 - 1540
WTI: The Crude Oil Price showed a downward movement and dropped below the main level of 54.68. If the fall continues below 54.68, we will see the main support level at 53.51. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 54.68, the next resistance level will be at 56.40
Support: 53.51 - 52.19 - 51.08
Resistance: 54.68 - 56.40 - 57.98