Geopolitics, Jobs, and Earnings Collide in a Critical Week for Markets

Key highlights:

• Japanese shares fell in early Tokyo trading after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran dented risk appetite and pushed oil higher. The Nikkei 225 was down 1.8% at 9:14 a.m. local time and the broader Topix fell 2.2%. Exporters, notably automakers and electronics makers and banks, led the declines, while oil producers and shipping firms rose after Brent at one point jumped more than 13% to above $82 a barrel.
• Gold climbed as Middle East war shook markets and drove investors toward safe havens, rising over 2% to about $5,390 an ounce in early trading after a gain of more than 3% the prior week.
• Oil posted its biggest one-day gain in four years as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran upended the global crude market and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Brent jumped as much as 13% to above $82 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate traded near $72. The spike in energy prices threatens to add to global inflationary pressures, complicating central bankers’ efforts to control price growth while supporting economic activity and employment.

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Dow Jones futures fell 1.1% (vs. fair value), S&P 500 futures declined 1%, and Nasdaq-100 futures retreated 1% as U.S. crude, already near seven-month highs amid U.S.-Iran tensions, jumped about 8% above $72 a barrel; oil and LNG tankers have stopped transiting the Strait of Hormuz, airlines are halting flights to the region, and OPEC+ agreed Sunday to resume production increases starting in April.

The stock market pullback late last week was driven by AI concerns, a hot PPI report, and U.S.-Iran tensions, sending major indexes below key support—while equal-weight ETFs remain at or above their own key levels.

US Economic Data and Earnings Calendar:

Investors will also watch the government’s February jobs report on Friday, after the labor market showed improvement in January following a shaky end to 2025. Retail sales for January are due the same day, with consumers having pulled back spending to finish last year.

Other upcoming economic releases include manufacturing and services activity reports. The January retail sales report is expected March 6.

The Fed’s Beige Book will outline regional economic conditions ahead of the central bank’s March 17–18 meeting, while February manufacturing and services survey data will also draw attention.

Economic calendar:

Monday, March 2

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Tuesday, March 3

• Fed officials speaking: NY Fed President John Williams; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Wednesday, March 4

• ADP National Employment Report (Feb)
• S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (Feb)
• ISM Services PMI (Feb)
• Federal Reserve Beige Book

Thursday, March 5

• Initial jobless claims (week ending Feb 28)
• U.S. productivity (Q4)
• Import Price Index (Jan)

Friday, March 6

• U.S. Employment Report (Feb)
• Consumer Credit (Jan)

Earnings calendar:

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook teased a “big week ahead” starting Monday; the company is expected to unveil several products possibly an iPhone 17e and cheaper MacBook culminating in a “special Apple experience” event on Wednesday.

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) will report quarterly results Wednesday. In December it forecasted that AI-related revenue would double that quarter. Marvell Technology’s earnings follow on Thursday.

CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) reports earnings amid pressure on software stocks spooked by AI-driven disruption—though analysts view AI as an opportunity for many cybersecurity firms, including CrowdStrike. Investors will also watch results from MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB), Guidewire, and Samsara.

Monday, March 2

• EchoStar (SATS), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), MongoDB (MDB)
• Apple (AAPL) begins its first product launch of the year.

Tuesday, March 3

• CrowdStrike (CRWD), Target (TGT), On Holding (ONON), Best Buy (BBY)

Wednesday, March 4

• Broadcom (AVGO), Okta (OKTA)

Thursday, March 5

• Costco (COST), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Kroger (KR), JD.com (JD), Burlington Stores (BURL), Gap (GAP)

Friday, March 6

• Genesco (GCO)

Broadcom (AVGO) shares plunged 11.4% on Dec. 12 in heavy trading, despite beating earnings and revenue. The company had said AI chip revenue was expected to double to $8.2 billion for the January quarter and forecast total revenue of $19.1 billion, above analysts’ $18.3 billion estimate.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) expects Q4 FY2026 revenue of $1.29–$1.30 billion. The Zacks consensus is $1.30 billion, implying 22.5% year‑over‑year growth.

Analysts project Costco (NASDAQ:COST) will earn $20.09 per share in fiscal 2026 (year ending August), up 11.7% from $17.99 in fiscal 2025, and forecast EPS to climb 9.3% to $21.95 in fiscal 2027.

Wall Street expects Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) to report higher year-over-year earnings on stronger revenue for the quarter ended January 2026. While that consensus helps frame expectations, the stock’s near-term move will largely depend on how actual results stack up against estimates.

Technical Analysis:

DJIA Index

• The DJIA index rejected the base of the rising channel from the August 2025 lows.
• That base is now acting as resistance at 49,650.
• A dip from 49,605 is likely to target 48,450.
• A break below 48,405 would signal further downside.
• Conversely, a sustained break above 49,650 would relieve short-term downside pressure.

DJIA Daily Candlestick Chart

Nasdaq 100 Index

• The Nasdaq 100 index is trading in a rectangle between 24,400 and 25,370, with 24,900 as the midpoint pivot.
• If Nasdaq falls below 24,900, a decline toward 24,400 is likely.
• If 24,900 holds, the path opens for a move up to 25,370.

NDX Daily Candlestick Chart

SPX Index

• SPX is trading inside a rectangle, indicating a pause ahead of the next breakout.
• The index has remained within the 6,780–7,010 band since mid‑January 2026.
• The range trade will likely persist until a decisive break on either side establishes direction.

SPX Daily Candlestick Chart

Weekly US Indices Probability Map:

• The U.S. weekly market probability map for Mar 02 – 06, 2026 suggests “ A week of mixed performance”.
• These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
• Sentiment readings are derived from a seasonality-based scoring system.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.

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