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- ETF flows and institutional buying drove early gains, while macro uncertainty triggered a midweek pullback.
- Bitcoin remains range-bound, with 90,000 support holding after rejection near 94,700 resistance.
- Break above 94,700 opens upside potential, while loss of 90,000 raises downside risk.
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Strong buying into US spot Bitcoin ETFs early in the week lifted confidence and pushed prices into the $92,000 to $94,000 range. That momentum faded midweek as ETF outflows picked up, pulling Bitcoin back toward $90,000.
On the institutional side, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) led by Michael Saylor added 1,286 BTC, reinforcing the pattern of large buyers stepping in during dips. On the macro side, markets reacted to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve interest rate path, causing sharp shifts in risk appetite.
On-chain data showed a clear drop in profit-taking, suggesting selling pressure had eased. The rebound also came with a lower supply hitting the market, which supports the current recovery.
From a technical view, price action improved, but Bitcoin still trades inside the same consolidation range seen over the past two months.
Technical Outlook for Bitcoin
Bitcoin began the new year with a bounce after buyers stepped in around the $86,000 to $88,000 range, a level that held twice in the final months of 2025.
Early buying pushed the price above short-term moving averages, which helped strengthen momentum. Bitcoin then climbed toward the resistance area near $94,700. Selling pressure increased around this level and near the three-month average of around 95,450, which stopped the move higher.
As a result, the price pulled back to the $90,000 to $91,000 zone. This area now acts as support and lines up with short-term averages. The price action suggests the early January rise was a move within the existing range rather than a clear trend reversal.
Bitcoin has traded sideways for about two months since its decline slowed in November. The broader range sits between roughly 85,150 and 94,700. The upper end of this range was tested again in early January, but sellers remained active there.
Right now, the 90,000 to 91,000 zone stands out as a key support area. If buyers hold this level, Bitcoin could build fresh momentum and attempt another move higher.
If Bitcoin moves higher, the first key level to watch is $94,700. Holding above this level on daily closes could open the door for a move toward the $100,000 to $102,000 zone. A break above $100,000 would likely lift market confidence and could build momentum toward $116,000, with resistance along the way around $105,000 to $110,000.
On the downside, a loss of support near $90,000 could lead to a quick drop toward the lower end of the range, around $85,000. If Bitcoin keeps failing to break above $94,700, selling pressure may increase and the price could continue moving sideways within the current range.
On the daily chart, momentum indicators showed overbought conditions the last time Bitcoin reached $94,700. As the price failed to break higher, these indicators turned down, pointing to a pullback. The key level remains $90,000. Holding above it could allow the market to cool off and give buyers time to regain strength. A clear break below $90,000 would raise the risk of a sharper decline.
Short-term Forecast Scenarios
Positive scenario, break above the range: If Bitcoin holds above the $91,000 area and momentum indicators turn higher again, the price could make another run at resistance near $94,700. A daily close above this level, followed by strength above the three-month average, would shift the outlook higher. In that case, the next upside targets come in around $100,600 and $102,200. If momentum continues to build, further resistance appears near $105,400 and $110,200.
Negative scenario, range-bound movement: If Bitcoin starts posting more daily closes below 90,000, the price could drift back toward the $87,000 to $88,000 area, which previously acted as support toward the end of last year. A deeper pullback would then bring the lower end of the range near $85,150 back into focus.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belong to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.