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Asia Session: Lockdown, Shutdown And Limit Down

By Stephen InnesMarket OverviewMar 23, 2020 07:43AM ET
Asia Session: Lockdown, Shutdown And Limit Down
By Stephen Innes   |  Mar 23, 2020 07:43AM ET
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Markets hit with the ugly stick this morning

  • SGX Nifty 50 futures fall 10% at the open.
  • China's Dalian Iron ore futures DCIOcv1 fall more than 4%.
  • The NZX 50 falls 10% following news of plan for nationwide self-isolation in New Zealand.

Investors are recoiling in horror this morning at the explosive Covid-19 death and latest headcounts around the world. The rapid spread has triggered unprecedented draconian containment measures globally and sees the world come to a standstill.

All the while the U.S. Congress is dilly-dallying on an aid plan. The extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus may help cushion a severe global economic downturn eventually. Still, the incentives are doing little to bolster investor sentiment, as confirmed by an exceptionally weak open for APAC's equity markets. 
Asian investors remain in double trouble as the expectation for any economic growth has weakened significantly, while the demand for the USD is likely to stay strong across Asia FX. 
Indeed, investors still need to focus on whether the economic downturn will drive a further weakening in credit and market liquidity.
In parts of Asia, the spread of the virus is either slowing in terms of new daily cases or governments are acting pro-actively, which leaves the likes of the JPY, CNH, and SGD more attractive than other global currency pairs 
Still lots of chatter about possible USD intervention, but unless it's the Fed NY doing the heavy lifting, it will likely offer traders better levels to buy dollars rather than anything else.
Despite the massive sell-off in U.S. equities last week and the extension in the Asia market today, gold is starting to hold up on relative terms, suggesting that much of the margin call-related selling needs are fading to the background. As whoever needed to sell stocks on margin has cleared out already and the new waves of selling are coming in from equity market short-sellers.
Oil sellers have been less indiscriminate this morning; given the background, chatter is building about the "TEXOPEC " meeting. Where there's smoke, there's fire. But its a wild cat bet at best at this juncture.

Also, traders are buckling in, preparing for a horrendous peek into their future this week when U.S. initial jobless claims are released. The high-frequency data will undoubtedly confirm we're entering a vortex of the fastest and most substantial rise in the U.S. and global unemployment in modern financial history.

Current estimates for new U.S. jobless claims are running around 2 million, but with Canada reporting 500,000 last week (37mm population), which would imply a U.S. equivalent of 4,420,000. If 2 million is the expectation, I'd argue it is "light" (under-reported) regardless of what the data shows.

The relative calm seen Thursday did not make it to the end of the week. The S&P 500 fell 4.3% Friday despite modest gains in European equities. U.S. 10Y yields fell 30bps to 0.85%, and gold rose 1.6% on speculation that the liquidation of safe assets will slow.

Given the widening spread of Covid-19 outside China, economists are in the process of unilaterally downgrading global GDP forecast for the third and, in some cases, the fourth time in the past two months. These rapid and unprecedented downgrades illustrate just how fast we've moved from a brief health scare to a full-blown global pandemic.

Traders are now pricing in a severe global recession as the U.S./EU adopt drastic measures to contain the pandemic, likely pointing to an unprecedented G2 recession (since World War II). While the situation in China, South Korea, and Singapore seems to be contained, recent data suggest the virus is spreading in other parts of ASEAN and India. As such, to defend against a secondary cluster spread, all of Asia has effectively gone into lockdown mode, suggesting growth in the region will fall well below current negative revision. Which of course is going to trigger more central bank policy easing and government support

Oil prices 

Oil fell another 11.1%, weighed down by news of enforced social distancing in NY state, and lockdown measures in California, two of the largest state economies in the U.S.

Oil markets collapsed out of the gate this morning as prices react in tangent to stringent containment lockdown measures that have seen life come to a standstill around the world. People are working/staying at home and only using their cars for the essential matters, as total demand devastation sets in.

Perhaps the only reason prices have collapsed below WTI $20 per barrels are reports that Texas is considering pulling up a chair to the bargaining table with OPEC. What was inconceivable only weeks ago might become a reality. 

But with the prospect of storage facilities filling quickly and the potential endpoint of "worthless crude oil" is increasingly discussed. If an agreement isn't forthcoming, these talks never happen, or they end in a contentious break-up, oil prices will most certainly head for the bottom at a ferocious velocity.

Gold markets

Gold continued to react to financial market sell-offs and, at times, supported as government and monetary authorities' attempts to manage the economic and financial ramifications of Covid-19. 

But in the face of the significant liquidation, gold  only closed down $25 in a week when U.S. equities fell 18%, the USD surged, and other commodities tanked, all of which suggest some but not all of the gold haven properties are starting to glitter again.

More concerning for bullion investors is that the USD has also moved sharply higher. But if the market can get beyond an immediate dash for USDs, gold will have a chance to move higher. It has remained an excellent portfolio diversifier for the past two years. 

For gold investors, hopefully, the demand for U.S. dollars from Emerging Market central banks won't cause them to sell gold to raise dollars and support their economies in this time of economic stress. If that does happen, the trap door will most certainly spring. 

Currency markets

 A weaker USD is part of the solution. Still, a stronger USD is unavoidable if investors fret about the liquidity (short-term rollover risk) and solvency (protracted revenue shortfalls) of dollar borrowers round the globe.

Volumes have been light this morning, perhaps reflecting the fact many Singapore and Hong Traders are working from home,moaning about their Wi-Fi connection and small screens. (Bloomberg)

But traders also think that there's a chance of more policy intervention on the way. The Fed could increase the breadth of EM SWAP lines ( last week, MAS and BoK were offered lines). They could enter the FX Swap market flooding the short-dated cash markets with U.S. dollars. Or they could even possibly intervene by instructing the NY Fed to seel US dollar, which would likely signal the start of a concerted worldwide central bank effort. 



The EURUSD is most prone to be overwhelmed by the economic carnage with the eurozone facing a demand shock without precedent in the single currency's history. Italy's coronavirus deaths now surpass China.

But it's the debt sharing burden that will bring deep-seated political tensions to the surface between Germany and the broader eurozone that will dominate the region's political scrim for years to come post-coronavirus and could even signal a collapse of the single currency unit.

Asia FX

The significant increase in USD-denominated debt in Asia EMFX since the financial crisis suggests the demand for USDs will remain strong as the global economy weakens further. 


The ringgit will likely come under further selling pressure on domestic economic concerns and more so against the backdrop of a stronger U.S. dollar. 

As well, oil prices are under extreme pressure relative to 2018 and 2019, so the MYR oil price sensitivity will continue to provide a significant downdraft. 

Also, the BNM will be most unlikely to drawdown on valuable U.S. dollar reserves to support the ringgit since the demand from local banks for dollars is robust. 

Asia Session: Lockdown, Shutdown And Limit Down

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Asia Session: Lockdown, Shutdown And Limit Down

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Comments (2)
Shivaram Yarmunja
Shivaram Yarmunja Jul 09, 2021 2:09PM ET
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Post one and half year it goes to prove that Indian markets are quite strong with many corporates strenghening their global presence and with ample support from global support with theme of one global family. It would have been good if a revision to outlook, as a matter of professional aprroach is welcome. A short one could do. Asia now is better than europe n uk in terms of market returns!
ECL SALES Dec 21, 2020 9:39AM ET
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