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Even though it happened through a detour, the goal of my last six-week-old forecast has almost been reached by the Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) share. The performance in the meantime has deviated somewhat from my ideas, but without influencing the larger picture. Tesla is still in a larger correction as part of an intact upward trend. Their conclusion is becoming increasingly visible, even if the current situation would justify a different view.
Outlook:
For almost a year, a complex correction (abc-x-abc) has been forming as a wave (2) of the overall upward trend. Currently the trend is moving in the second wave (a) and stands directly before the 1.00 retracement (226.65 €) the actual goal of this small lower wave. The descent can go as far as the larger 0.62 support (217.36 €), but not further down.
Due to the fact that the small wave (3) is closed, a very slight recovery phase for the formation of wave (4) seems realistic. Significant is not to be expected from this small wave, however, because its maximum target is currently € 261.92 at the 0.62 retracement. The one following on (a) (b) already has a little more potential.
This wave will also expand temporarily and is expected to rise to the upper light grey trend line. As shown in the chart I expect the conclusion of wave (2) in the range of 0.62 retracement at 217.36 €. The time ruler gives clues about the chronological sequence of the movements still to be completed. I cannot see any premature improvement in the starting position on the chart.
Conclusion:
Tesla's stock is undergoing a complex correction, the completion of which is approaching but not yet tangible. I therefore advise against making any commitments in the value at the present time. Secure on the 1.00 retracement (226.65 €).