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Weekly Technical Analysis For October 9th to 13th, 2017
EUR/USD: The September Non-Farm Payrolls surprised the market last Friday, 33K jobs loss for the US economy, effected from Hurricane Harvey and Irma. On the other hand, Unemployment rate and Average hourly earnings were better than expected. After mix jobs data, no change in view for a likely hike by year-end from the Fed officials.
Next week, we will focus on the US CPI Inflation and FOMC Meeting Minutes. The Fed forecast still signals another 2017 hike and three more in 2018. The Fed also announced that it would start rolling back its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October. The notes may help forecasters model the upcoming decisions from the central bank. The US CPI inflation also is one of the two pillars of Fed’s dual mandate, the market will seek a hint out of next Fed moves. Market consensus for the data to be released and it is expected to come out 0.6% m/m and y/y inflation is expected to rise to 2.3% in September from 1.9% a month ago. Core inflation is expected to rise slightly to 1.8% from 1.7% a month earlier. Acceleration in headline inflation may prompt investors to price further rate hikes from Fed hence push US Dollar Index and bond yields higher.
The EUR/USD shook with US Jobs Report last Friday and the pair closed last week above the key support level of 1.1720. As long as the price stays above 1.1720 on a four-hourly basis, the Euro may gain more value versus the dollar, we will face 1.1769 and 1.1812 as resistance levels. On the other hand, if the pair drops below 1.1720, the next support level will be at 1.1660
Support: 1.1720 – 1.1660 – 1.1607
Resistance: 1.1769 – 1.1812 - 1.1884
GBP/USD: The GBP/USD has dropped for three weeks and the price closed last week above the 1.3050 key support level. However, as long as the price stays above 1.3050, we might see the upward reaction in short-term. In this case, we will face again resistance levels at 1.3103 and 1.3152. On the other hand, if the price drops below 1.3050, the next support level will be at 1.3007.
Support: 1.3050 – 1.3007 – 1.2961
Resistance: 1.3103 – 1.3152 – 1.3199
USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair closed last week above the 112.46 key support level. If the price is able to break down 112.46 and stays below that level on a four-hourly basis, we might see the profit taking action and next support levels will be at 112.08 and 111.66. On the other hand, if the price shows an upward movement above 112.46. we will follow 112.94 and 113.63 as resistance levels.
Support: 112.46 – 112.08 – 111.66
Resistance: 112.94 – 113.63 - 114.11
Gold: The Gold price showed an upward movement after US Non-Farm Payrolls were released and closed last week just below the 1276 main resistance level. In order for the bullish action gain more momentum, it needs to rise and remain above 1276 on a daily basis, In this case, we will face 1283 and 1291 as resistance levels. Otherwise, if the price shows a downward movement below 1276, we will watch support levels again at 1272 and 1265.
Support: 1272 –1266 – 1256
Resistance: 1276 - 1283 - 1291
CRUDE OIL: The Price of Crude Oil dropped significantly last Friday. In the event that the bearish action continues and we will face support levels at 48.48 and 47.10. Although, if the price shows an upward movement, we will see 50.30 and 51.75 as resistance levels.
Support: 48.48 – 47.10 – 45.59
Resistance: 50.30 - 51.75
