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60% Of Companies With Off-Trend Q4 Earnings Dates Performed As Expected

By Christine ShortStock MarketsMar 10, 2022 06:37PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/60-of-companies-with-offtrend-q4-earnings-dates-performed-as-expected-200619758
60% Of Companies With Off-Trend Q4 Earnings Dates Performed As Expected
By Christine Short   |  Mar 10, 2022 06:37PM ET
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During the Q4 earnings season we profiled 12 companies that had unusual earnings dates, which can serve as a foreshadowing of what an upcoming report might reveal, and, therefore, be an indicator of financial health. Sixty percent of those companies' stocks reacted as we expected, using the Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor logic. This is lower than results from the prior two earnings seasons (when this feature commenced), as volatile markets rocked by the Omicron variant, inflation and the Russia-Ukraine crisis impacted stock values more than quarterly results. Below we review all 12 names and how they performed in the five days following their announcement.

Boyd Gaming Corp – Followed Expected Logic

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Thursday, Feb. 3, AMC
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, Feb. 15 
  • Z-Score: -5.19
  • DateBreaks Factor: +3

We flagged Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE:BYD) ahead of its Q4 report because it confirmed an unusual earnings date, outside of the historical date range in which we’ve typically seen it report. BYD tends to release CQ4 results between Feb. 16 and March 3, and have done so for the last 15 years. However, this year it confirmed it would be announcing nearly two weeks early, on Feb. 3. According to academic research, an earlier-than-usual earnings date often indicates good news will be announced. 

Results: Boyd Gaming reported Q4 results that surpassed expectations on both the top (actual: $879.84 million, est: $838.27 million) and bottom line (actual: $1.35, est: $1.25). This resulted in a price increase of 20.1%.

Amgen Inc. – Followed Expected Logic

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Monday, Feb. 7, AMC
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, Feb. 1
  • Z-Score: 3.35
  • DateBreaks Factor: -3

Amgen Inc (NASDAQ:AMGN) crossed our radar ahead of its Q4 report with a confirmed earnings date that was outside of its historical range. AMGN has reported Q2 results between Jan. 23 and Feb. 2 for the last 15 years. However, this quarter it confirmed it would be announcing nearly one week later than our projected date of Feb. 1. The delayed earnings date indicated a negative report ahead. 

Results: Amgen ended up missing revenue expectations (actual: $6.846 billion, est: $6.869 billion) yet beating profit estimates (actual: $4.36, est: $4.04). The mixed results lead to an initial pop in the stock after the report, with the price eventually settling down 2% in the five-day post-earnings period.

Pfizer Inc. – Followed Expected Logic

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, Feb. 8, AMC
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, Feb. 1
  • Z-Score: 4.03
  • DateBreaks Factor: -3

Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) also had a report date that was later than its historical average. PFE typically reports Q4 results on the last Tuesday of January, or the first Tuesday of February. Its historical date range is Jan. 22 to Feb. 3. On Dec. 28, the company issued a press release stating that Q4 results would be released on Feb. 8, a week later than we had estimated. As such we anticipated worse-than-expected results on earnings day.  

Results: Similarly to Amgen, Pfizer also beat on the bottom line (actual: $1.08, est: $0.87), but missed significantly on the top line (actual: $23.838 billion, est: $24.157 billion). This resulted in a price decrease of 7.5%.

Harley Davidson – Followed Reverse Logic

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, Feb. 8, AMC
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Wednesday, Feb. 2
  • Z-Score: 4.72
  • DateBreaks Factor: -3

Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG) got our attention when it confirmed a Q4 earnings date that was nearly a week outside of its historical range. HOG has reported Q4 results between Jan. 18 and Feb. 2 for the last 15 years, typically on a Tuesday. However, this quarter it confirmed ity would be announcing on Feb. 8. 

Results: When Harley Davidson reported, it beat on EPS (actual: $0.15, est: -$0.35) and on revenues (actual: $816.02 million, est: $665.51 million). Results were driven by the success of HOG’s five-year strategic plan “Hardwire,” which resulted in increased shipments and favorable motorcycle unit mix throughout 2021. The stock rose 21.7% in the post-earnings period.

Crocs Inc. – Followed Reverse Logic

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, Feb. 16, BMO
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, Feb. 22
  • Z-Score: -5.03
  • DateBreaks Factor: +3

This is not Crocs Inc (NASDAQ:CROX) first time confirming an earlier than usual earnings date. In fact, for the Q4 2020 earnings season Crocs similarly moved its report two days earlier, resulting in a DateBreaks Factor of 3. For Q4 2021 CROX set a report date of Feb. 16, four days earlier than usual, after reporting in a range of Feb. 16 to March 1 since 2007. 

Results: Despite surpassing expectations on the top (actual: $586.63 million, est: $585.02 million) and bottom line (actual: $2.15, est: $1.98), the price steadily declined after the report due to lower revenue guidance for Q1. In the five-day post-earnings period shares fell 26.9%

AMC Networks – Followed Reverse Logic

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, Feb. 16, BMO
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, Feb. 24
  • Z-Score: -4.76
  • DateBreaks Factor: +3

AMC Networks Inc (NASDAQ:AMCX) (not meme stock AMC Entertainment!) confirmed a Q4 earnings date that was over a week earlier than usual. It has historically reported Q4 results anywhere from Feb. 23 to March 15, with no day-of-the-week trend. On  Feb. 1, the company confirmed it would report on Feb. 16, suggesting results may surprise to the upside. 

Results: Despite posting EPS that were more than double what Wall Street was expecting (actual: $0.54, est: $0.23) and revenues that came in nearly 5% ahead of estimates and helped boost the full-year total to a record (actual: $803.71 million, est: $767.27 million), the stock proceeded to fall 16.2% in the days after the report. This was mostly a result of stiff competition from other streaming platforms that announced results that week, mainly ViacomCBS (NASDAQ:PARA) and Discovery (NASDAQ:DISCA), which both noted they would be massively ramping up their budgets for new content. 

Sealed Air Corp  – Followed Reverse Logic

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Thursday, Feb. 17, BMO
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, Feb. 8
  • Z-Score: 5.66
  • DateBreaks Factor: -3

For the last 15 years, Sealed Air Corporation (NYSE:SEE) has reported Q4 earnings results from Jan. 24 to Feb. 10 (with the exception of Q4 2012 when it reported on Feb. 19), typically on a Tuesday or Thursday. On Jan. 13, the company confirmed it would report on Feb. 17, over a week later than we had anticipated based on its historical reporting range, suggesting there may be disappointing results shared on the upcoming call. 

Results: Sure enough, when SEE reported on Feb. 17 it did announce a penny miss on EPS (actual: $1.12, est: $1.13), keep in mind companies were getting punished more than usual for misses in Q4. In spite of not clearing the bar on the bottom line, top-line results came in slightly higher than expected (actual: $1.532 billion, est: $1.489 billion) and the stock went on to increase 9.5% in the post-earnings period. 

Park Hotels & Resorts – Followed Expected Logic

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Thursday, Feb. 17, AMC
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, Feb. 24
  • Z-Score: -5.7
  • DateBreaks Factor: +3*

Since its spin-off from Hilton Worldwide in 2017, Park Hotels & Resorts Inc (NYSE:PK) has reported Q4 earnings results in a tight range, from Feb. 25 to March 1. On Jan. 10, the company confirmed it would report on Feb. 17, one week earlier than we had anticipated based on its historical reporting range, suggesting there may be good news shared on the upcoming call. 

Results:  Park Hotels & Resorts is a real estate investment trust (REIT). It is usually measured by its Funds From Operations (FFO) and not EPS. PK announced FFO for Q4 came in at $0.05 per share, well ahead of the $0.02 expectation. Revenues of $451 million beat sell-side estimates by almost $15 million. As a result the stock ticked up 4% in the days after the report. 

eBay, Inc. – Followed Expected Logic

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, Feb. 23, AMC
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Wednesday, Feb. 2
  • Z-Score: 7.91
  • DateBreaks Factor: -3

This is not eBay's (NASDAQ:EBAY) first time on our outlier list. In Q2 2021, the e-commerce company also announced an earnings date that was two weeks later than usual. Since 2006, eBay has reported Q4 earnings results in a range from Jan. 18 to Feb. 3, typically on a Tuesday or Wednesday. As such, we set a report date of Feb. 2. On Jan. 24, the company confirmed it would report on Feb. 23, three weeks later than we had anticipated based on its historical reporting range, suggesting there may be bad news shared on the upcoming call. 

Results: While reported results from eBay came in ahead of expectations on EPS (actual: $1.05, est: $0.99) and just slightly ahead on revenues (actual: $2.613 billion est: $2.603 billion), the company warned of slowing growth in the year ahead as it deals with a declining customer base due to the pent-up demand for brick-and-mortar shopping following the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, the stock fell 5.7% in the days following the report. 

Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) Brewing Co – Followed Expected Logic

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, Feb. 23, BMO
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, Feb. 10
  • Z-Score: 7.81
  • DateBreaks Factor: -3

Molson Coors Brewing (NYSE:TAPa) has historically reported Q4 results anywhere from Feb. 9-16, with no day of the week trend. As such, we set a report date of Feb. 10. On  Jan. 19, the company confirmed it would report on Feb. 23, two weeks later than we had anticipated, suggesting results for the quarter may surprise to the downside. 

Results: As Wall Street Horizon anticipated, profits for TAP came in well below Wall Street estimates for Q4 (actual: $0.81, est: $0.86). Even better-than-expected revenues of $2.619 billion (vs est. $2.538 billion) couldn’t save the beverage company. Investors took the stock down 8.9%.

Hormel Foods – Followed Reverse Logic 

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, March 1, BMO
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, Feb. 17
  • Z-Score: 3.45
  • DateBreaks Factor: -3

Since 2007, Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE:HRL) has reported Q4 earnings results in a range from Feb. 15-23, typically on a Tuesday or Thursday. As such, we set a report date of Feb. 17. On Feb. 7, the company confirmed it would report on March 1, eight days later than we had anticipated based on its historical reporting range, suggesting there may be bad news shared on the upcoming call. 

Results: There’s no doubt HRL was feeling the squeeze of inflation in Q4, as many of its consumer staples peers have reported, reporting just in-line on EPS (actual: $0.44, est: $0.44) and eking out a slight beat on revenues (actual: $3.044 billion, est: $2.920 billion). The company kept investors positive by reaffirming their 2022 outlook based on a favorable demand environment, strong branding and pricing power. As such the stock shot up 9.4% after the report. 

CarParts.com – Followed Expected Logic

  • Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, March 1, AMC
  • Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Monday, March 7
  • Z-Score: -3.31
  • DateBreaks Factor: +3

For the last eight years Carparts.Com Inc (NASDAQ:PRTS) has reported Q4 results during the second week of March (6th - 9th), with no day-of-the-week trend. As such, we set a report date of March 7. On Feb. 8, the company confirmed it would report on March 1, a week earlier than we had anticipated, suggesting results for the quarter may surprise to the upside. 

Results: PRTS beat both on the top (actual: $138.261 million,  est: $125.21 million) and bottom-line (actual: -$0.10, est: -$0.11) in Q4, as strength in used cars due to supply-chain disruptions from the pandemic continues to drive value. The stock rose 12.5% in the days after reporting. 

60% Of Companies With Off-Trend Q4 Earnings Dates Performed As Expected
 

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60% Of Companies With Off-Trend Q4 Earnings Dates Performed As Expected

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