Oil prices surge to two-week winning streak as Iran supply fears grip markets
Gold is up 7% today, so we’re having a big reversal in the metals market. The recent consolidation in gold and silver should just be the pause that refreshes. What you will find if you try to buy gold, especially at Costco, it is frequently sold out. Silver is much more sensitive to industrial demand and should also firm up after consolidation. The primary reason that gold was up 64% in 2025 and was also appreciating this year is that there remains a lack of confidence in both central banks and governments.
I’m happy to stick with gold. Some of the gold stocks I recommend are Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alamos Gold (AGI), Barrick Mining (B), Compania de Minas Buenaventura (BVN), Coeur Mining (CDE), Centerra Gold (CGAU), Caledonia Mining (CMCL), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Equinox Gold (EQX), Hecla Mining (HL), IAMGold Corporation (IAG), OR Royalties (OR), New Gold (NGD), Idaho Strategic Resources (IDR), Integra Resources (ITRG), Kinross Gold (KGC), SSR Mining (SSRM), Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM), and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM).
The good news, as far as GDP growth is concerned, is that the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) announced that its manufacturing index surged to 52.6 in January, up from 47.9 in December. Since any reading under 50 signals a recession, the manufacturing recession is over after being below 50 for 12 consecutive months. Also impressive is that the production component surged to 55.9 in January, up from 50.7 in December. Nine of the 17 industries surveyed reported an expansion in January. Overall, this is the best ISM manufacturing reading since 2022 and very encouraging for improving GDP growth.
The U.S. is in the midst of an exciting economic boom, and 5% annual GDP growth should emerge from the estimated $20 trillion of onshoring of data centers, semiconductors, pharmaceutical and automotive industries that are creating an incredible domestic economic growth. The U.S. is energy-independent and has a natural advantage compared to competing countries around the world, since manufacturers can circumvent tariffs by onshoring. Furthermore, the U.S. will also be helping Venezuela to boost its crude oil production, which should help to keep crude oil prices low for the foreseeable future.
The productivity enhancements from AI are expected to help to continue to boost GDP growth. The data center boom continues, and there is no doubt that the AI revolution persists. Since Nvidia’s new Vera Rubin GPU is five times faster and ten times more energy efficient than its Blackwell GPU, you will be hearing about and AI replacement cycle in the upcoming years. In the meantime, the prices for advanced semiconductor chips and memory remain firm, so AI has ensured profitability for companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Micron (MU), and Seagate Technology (STX).
In summary, the U.S. continues to lead the world with its domestic GDP growth, and now that Kevin Warsh has been nominated to be the next Fed Chairman, the U.S. dollar is expected to continue to firm up. There is no doubt that AI is boosting productivity and also reducing jobs in corporate America, so the Fed will be cutting key interest rates at least three times this year due to persistent unemployment concerns. Hopefully, these key interest rate cuts will also boost consumer confidence in the upcoming months. We remain in the midst of a powerful bull market for stocks, especially for domestic small and mid-capitalization stocks.