3 Catalysts Set to Sway Stocks This Week: Geopolitics, Inflation and Tech Earnings

Key highlights:

• Japanese stocks plunged (Nikkei down as much as 6.9%, Topix up to 5.7%) as rising oil, Middle East tensions and weak US jobs data spooked investors.
• Oil surged toward $120/bbl as major Middle East producers cut output, the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively closed and U.S. threats risked escalating the conflict. Brent jumped as much as 28% to $118.73 and WTI rose 31%, with Kuwait, the UAE and Iraq trimming production as storage fills.
• Gold tumbled as a stronger US dollar, rate‑hike worries, and a surge in oil above $100 amid a second week of Middle East conflict pushed bullion lower. A quick end to the fighting could lift gold, while a prolonged war would likely buoy US dollar and Treasury yields.
• Equities plunged as Brent topped $100–$109/bbl amid escalating Middle East hostilities and shipping disruptions, sending Asian benchmarks down (Asia index -5.4%, South Korea >8%, Japan 7%) and US/Europe futures further lower.
• Treasuries fell and US dollar strengthened as oil surged 18% intraday after a prior 28% rise and major producers cut output while Strait of Hormuz traffic stalled.
• US dollar strengthened against major peers as Middle East war lifted oil above $100 and bolstered haven demand. Hedge funds were the least bearish on US dollar since January (CFTC), and bond traders pushed a full 25‑bp Fed cut out to September.
• China’s CPI rose at the fastest pace in over three years and factory deflation eased as energy rallies and a late, spending‑heavy Lunar New Year boosted demand.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures plunged Sunday night as crude briefly spiked to $110 a barrel. Tehran rejected calls for a cease-fire, named Mojtaba Khamenei (son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) as the new supreme leader.

Last week was rough; oil jumped over 30% while major US stocks slid 2%–5%. Payrolls fell 92,000 in February (vs. an expected +55,000), with downward revisions to January and December leaving a three‑month average gain of just 6,000 total payrolls and 18,000 in the private sector.

US Economic Data and Earnings Calendar:

Wednesday brings February’s Consumer Price Index after January’s surprise dip; later in the week, the report features January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report, following December’s hotter‑than‑expected PCE reading.

The Fed heads into next week’s meeting divided into potential rate cuts after recently holding rates steady. This week also brings housing data, existing‑home sales, housing starts and a consumer‑sentiment survey that may reveal whether Middle East turmoil is weighing on spending.

Economic calendar:

Tuesday March 10

• Existing‑home sales (Feb); NFIB small‑business optimism (Feb)

Wednesday March 11

• Consumer Price Index (Feb); U.S. federal budget (Feb)

Thursday March 12

• U.S. trade deficit (Jan); initial jobless claims; housing starts (Jan)

Friday March 13

• Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (Jan); GDP (1st rev Q4); durable goods orders (Jan); job openings (Jan); preliminary consumer sentiment (Mar)

Earnings calendar:

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) shares are down over 50% from September highs ahead of earnings; the cloud giant plans to raise $50 billion to build AI data centers. Adobe’s (NASDAQ:ADBE) results will offer a read on the software sector’s health.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) reports Monday — a potential read on AI spending — with analysts expecting demand for its IT products and services despite an earlier, disappointing outlook.

Dollar General’s (NYSE:DG) results will shed light on retail, having recently benefited from price pressures. Campbell’s, Ulta, Petco and Chinese EV rivals Li Auto and Nio also report this week.

Monday March 9

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Casey’s General Store (CASY)

Tuesday March 10

• Oracle (ORCL), AeroVironment (AVAV), Nio (NIO)

Wednesday March 11

• Campbell’s (CPB), UiPath (PATH)

Thursday March 12

• Adobe (ADBE), Dollar General (DG), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Li Auto (LI)

Oracle (ORCL) has begun to rally ahead of Tuesday after‑close results. Strong AI‑infrastructure demand drove November‑quarter segment revenue up 68% to $4.1B and total revenue to $16.1B (+14%); February‑quarter revenue is seen at $16.9B (+14%), though concerns about heavy AI spending and rising debt have pressured the stock.

Adobe (ADBE) has a strong record of quarterly and annual earnings growth, but AI disruption fears have weighed on its stock. On Dec. 10, the shares jumped 2.1% on heavy volume after Adobe posted fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of $5.50 (+14%) and revenue of $6.19 billion (+10%). The company reports Thursday after the close; FactSet consensus: adjusted EPS $5.86 (+15% YoY) and revenue $6.27B (+10%).

Ulta (ULTA) reports late Thursday, EPS seen down 5% to $8.02, revenue up 13% to $3.82B. Dollar General (DG) is another key retail report this week.

Technical Analysis:

DJIA Index

• DJIA Index broke the long-term uptrend from Aug 25, 2025, and the Dow is now in a falling channel.
• Dow futures are down 2.13% at the time of writing.
• Risk of a drop to 45,600; interim support near 46,500.
• Possible corrective bounce to 47,750 — must hold to sustain further downside.

DJIA Daily Candlestick Chart

Nasdaq 100 Index

• The Nasdaq 100 index is trading in a rectangle between 24,400 and 25,370, with 24,900 as the midpoint pivot.
• If Nasdaq opens below 24,400 Monday at 09:30 am et meaning a downside breakout of rectangle.
• The downside targets of rectangle are 23,920 and 24,450.

NDX Daily Candlestick Chart

SPX Index

• SPX broke a rectangle consolidation, triggering a bearish move.
• Targeting support at 6,505–6,475.
• Must stay below 6,690–6,710 to keep sliding lower.

SPX Daily Candlestick Chart

Weekly US Indices Probability Map:

• The U.S. weekly market probability map for Mar 09 – 13, 2026 suggests “US indices set for another mixed week as rotation and uncertainty persist.”.
• These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
• Sentiment readings are derived from a seasonality-based scoring system.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.

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