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Factbox-When is the second Republican debate and will Trump attend?

Published 09/18/2023, 06:57 PM
Updated 09/18/2023, 07:01 PM
© Reuters. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, U.S. Senator Tim Scott (R-SC

By Tim Reid

(Reuters) - At least six Republican candidates will take part in the second 2024 Republican presidential debate on Sept. 27 in California. Donald Trump will skip the event and give a speech in Detroit to autoworkers.

Here are some facts about the event and what to expect:

WHEN AND WHERE WILL IT TAKE PLACE?

Following on from last month's debate in Wisconsin,

The second showdown will take place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute in Simi Valley, California, about 45 miles (72 km) north of Los Angeles.

The Republican National Committee, which organizes the debates, has picked the Fox Business Network to host the event, alongside Univision, the U.S.-based Spanish language TV channel, and Rumble, the online video platform popular with conservatives. The two-hour debate will start at 9 p.m. ET (0100 GMT).

FEWER CANDIDATES - AND NO TRUMP AGAIN

The qualifying rules for the second debate are more stringent than the first last month, when eight candidates were on stage in Milwaukee. This means two long-shot contenders - North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson - will likely fail to make the cut due to a lack of donors and poor polling.

Former President Donald Trump, the runaway front-runner in the nominating contest according to opinion polls, has said he will skip the debates, and did not appear at the first one.

As he did in August, Trump will hold a rival event at the same time as the debate. He will give a speech in Detroit to autoworkers and other blue-collar workers. The United Auto Workers (UAW) union on Friday launched strikes at three U.S. auto plants after failing to reach an agreement over new contracts, the first-ever simultaneous labor action against the Detroit Three automakers.

The six candidates likely to be on stage are: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, U.S. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, biotech investor Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

With a smaller lineup, there will be more time for each candidate to attack each other and make their pitches to voters. It also gives them more opportunity to shine or self-destruct.

DESANTIS DESPERATELY NEEDS A BREAKOUT PERFORMANCE

DeSantis, who was seen in January as the most likely candidate to topple Trump, has had a torrid year, with sinking poll numbers and two staff shake-ups. Once the clear second-place candidate behind Trump, DeSantis' campaign has floundered as some other candidates closed the gap with him in recent polls.

The Florida governor delivered a solid, if not flashy, performance in last month's debate but was frequently overshadowed by Ramaswamy. DeSantis will be looking for some breakout moments this time around to rejuvenate his candidacy.

RAMASWAMY WILL GET HIT FROM ALL SIDES

With Trump currently crushing his rivals by roughly 40 percentage points in national polls, the Republican nominating contest has become a fight for second place. His rivals hope the former president's four criminal indictments and legal woes will somehow knock him out of the race next year, giving an alternative nominee the chance to emerge.

After Ramaswamy's pugnacious performance in the August debate, expect to see more attacks on him and his lack of experience, especially by Haley and Pence, both of whom had strong outings last month.

Like DeSantis, Scott also needs a more forceful night after his subdued one last month. The Haley-Ramaswamy-Scott-Pence scramble to overtake DeSantis and become the clear alternative to Trump will likely be a major dynamic.

DEFEND TRUMP, ATTACK BIDEN

Do not expect to see most candidates - with the exception of Christie - going after Trump for his indictments and the fact he is now the first former president with a mug shot. Many Republican primary voters believe Trump's claim that the indictments are an effort by the Biden administration to thwart his candidacy, and attacking him on the issue would likely be political suicide.

With the Republican-controlled House of Representatives launching a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden over alleged links to the business practices of his son Hunter Biden, expect to see a barrage of accusations against the Democratic president, an issue that plays well with the Republican base despite the dearth of evidence unearthed so far.

© Reuters. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, U.S. Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum debate at the first Republican candidates' debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S. August 23, 2023. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File photo

A PLAY FOR HISPANIC VOTERS

The inclusion of Univision as a debate host is telling. Republican support among Latinos, an increasingly key voting bloc in some key battleground states, including Arizona and Nevada, has been growing in recent years, while Hispanic support for Biden has been dropping. Expect to see candidates asked about the economy and how they plan to improve the financial prospects for Latino families.

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