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US 10Y Treasury yield on the rise, but bond bears joy could be cut short by July

Published 05/29/2024, 04:43 PM
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Investing.com - The 10-year Treasury yield broke out of its recent range as hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and weaker Treasury auction results put the squeeze on government bonds, but the bond bears are unlikely to strengthen their grip as the U.S. benchmark yield could fall to its 4.30% to 4.50% range as soon as July. 

The 10-Year yield, which trades inversely to bond prices, broke above its trading range, but "the 10-year yield "should stabilized by July", Evercore ISI said Wednesday, citing its Evercore ISI tactical rate index, which leads Treasury spot yields by 8 weeks. 

The "tug-of-war" between bullish factors and bearish factors kept yields in a narrow range since the last jobs report on May 3, Evercore says, but in recent weeks had titled positive as weaker-than-expected economic releases, usually a drag on yields, didn't offset hawkish statements by Fed officials just amid a backdrop of weaker Treasury auctions and higher home and consumer prices.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has been the highlight of Fed speak so far this week, saying on Tuesday that he needs "many more months of positive inflation data," to back a dial back in rates. Kashkari also didn't ruled out the prospect of a rate hike, though said it was unlikely. 

A move for the yield on the 10-year Treasury toward the 4.30% to 4.50% range will required four key trends coming together, Evercore ISI highlights, including a slowing job growth below the working age population growth, more financial stress for consumers in the lower income bracket, a downtick in super core inflation, or services excluding housing and shelter, and the prospect of fed cuts this year.  

But none of these conditions seem firmly in place, Evercore ISI argues, though adds that seasonal factors for the 10-year Treasury |should also weigh own the yield significantly in May, June and July."

The bullish call on the 10-year Treasury, or bearish on the benchmark yield, comes just days ahead of the April PCE data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. The data come "amidst renewed questions about rate cuts this week after another round of robust growth data," Deutsche Bank said, forecasting core PCE to come in at 0.26% month-on-month in April.

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